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Regional Initial Thoughts: Week 1

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  • Regional Initial Thoughts: Week 1

    Please share your own thoughts below. This is meant to start a discussion, if you have seen a team and you think I am over or under valuing them let me know! Good luck with regionals! If you aren't on here, then prove me wrong! If you made my list, then prove me right! - MockAnalysisIsMyDrug

    Richmond: (24 teams) ‘The competition for third’ (avg. power rank: 216)
    - 4 teams in top 100, 8 in top 200

    First in:
    UVA A
    UVA B
    William and Mary A
    Johns Hopkins A
    Patrick Henry A
    Richmond B

    Bubble:
    William and Mary B
    Maryland B
    Maryland C
    Richmond C
    Rutgers C
    Ursinus
    Swarthmore A
    Patrick Henry D

    Initial Thoughts:
    The old UVA buzz saw regional. The defending national champs are looking as strong as ever and aren’t backing down, as I said, this will be a true competition for third place. But, that spot will be highly contested between Richmond, Maryland, William and Mary, Patrick Henry, and Johns Hopkins. All 5 of these programs have been steadily improving and are looking very strong. Since we have two teams from each of these programs in addition to UVA, it will definitely be tight to see which teams make the top 8. I have my largest doubts about Maryland at the moment; they have really been struggling in recent years – despite having 5 teams only one made it to ORCS last year. Don’t overlook a Rutgers or Swarthmore to possibly steal a spot from one of these teams either. I also know that I would love to see Davidson or Wake Forrest Mock Trial programs brush off the cobwebs and have a good showing.

    Team to Watch:
    Johns Hopkins - this program has been greatly improving over the recent years and this year we hope to see that continue. With Ayesha Durrani and Ajay Prabhat at the helm, they make for quite a formidable opponent, and we wouldn'’t be surprised to see them make it to nationals this year. While their invitational performances have been fairly lackluster, this mostly stems from their unstacked teams design. We noticed that many different individuals received attorney and witness awards, and when the teams are stacked and they are all on an A team, this team becomes quite scary. The only tournament we know of since stacking for Johns Hopkins was Quinnipiac's Invitational. Johns Hopkins proved that now that they are stacked they mean business, taking first place and knocking off strong teams such as Wesleyan and runner-ups Bowdoin. This regional will be that A team's first real test against some of the best teams in the country like Patrick Henry and UVA.

    State College: (26 teams) ‘The predictable one’ (avg. power rank: 219)
    - 4 teams in top 100, 7 in top 200

    First in:
    Washington and Lee A
    Washington and Lee B
    NYU A
    NYU B
    George Washington B
    UPenn A

    Bubble:
    UPenn B
    Penn State C
    Penn State D
    Rochester C

    Initial Thoughts:
    The top 6 teams here are all virtual locks to make it. NYU, GW, and Washington and Lee are all Nationals regulars and don’t seem like they are going to be stopped here. UPenn is always strong and I fully expect them to make it out of this region. The reality here is that the bottom teams are just so far removed from the top teams. The bubble here is very small. Rochester has been quite strong recently, particularly with their Nationals run last year, so I am giving their C team some credit. Penn State and UPenn both have strong enough programs that these bubble teams may end up challenging each other. But outside of these 10, I will be very pleasantly surprised to see one of these other teams challenge for a spot.

    Team to watch:
    NYU - yeah yeah, I know it is obvious, but this is the final year for the legendary duo of Nick Ramos and JP Barrata, and they both deserve shout outs. NYU has already shown its ability at multiple impressive outings, including going 8-0 at Rutgers, 7-1 at Fordham, and 5-2-1 at CUBAIT. NYU's A team had some slight hiccups to barely scrape their way out of the DC regionals last year, but with majority of their A team returning in force, we expect NYU to make it back to nationals. Since stacking, we have been able to see this NYU A team really dominate as we would predict. They competed each weekend for the last 3 weeks: getting 2nd at UCLAssic (6-1-1) with an impressive sweep of UCLA A; then next week hosted at Downtown where they played nothing but previous Nationals contenders and achieved a record of 15-2-3 (16.5 Wins), the next closest was Yale/UCLA who both had only 14 wins. In the final round NYU beat Yale: 6-2-1. Along the way NYU also swept (4-0-1) last year's runner up UVA! Just last weekend NYU B went to CUBAIT where they went 6-2, which was good enough for first place. With a record this good and at such impressive tournaments, NYU is an easy prediction to make the National Final Round.


    Washington DC: (26 teams) “The bloodbath" (avg. power rank: 208)
    - 5 teams in top 100, 8 in top 200

    First in:
    Howard A
    Howard B
    Haverford A
    Rutgers A
    Fordham Lincoln Center A

    Bubble:
    Temple A
    Seton Hall A
    Georgetown C
    American C
    Fordham Rose Hill A
    Fordham Lincoln Center B
    Drexel A
    Rutgers B
    Pace A

    Initial thoughts:
    This is easily the toughest region yet. Nobody is safe. There really aren’t many bottom teams here. Fordham Rose Hill, Haverford, and Pace have all been steadily improving over the last few years and are all looking to break. Seton Hall, Rutgers, Howard, and Fordham Lincoln Center have all made it to ORCS the past few years and we see no reason to expect anything different from them. We have put Fordham-LC's B team in the "Bubble" area since they are so young this year - with 11 new faces and only 3 seniors and juniors, what was once a seasoned, feared team has had a less than impressive invitational season, and at a regional as difficult as this one, look for Fordham to, despite their impressive history, falter and only send a single team to ORCS for the first time in the last few years. Similarly, but to a smaller extent, Temple and Drexel have both had rough seasons after losing some of their seniors. We also throw American C and Georgetown C into the mix. Both of these teams come from exceptional programs, and they are definitely looking to ruin some other programs shot at making it out of this death trap of a regional. With so many solid teams, there shouldn't be anyone skating by without having to prove their mettle in the second and third rounds. There are 26 teams at this region, and 15 of them are in our above list. Teams that consistently make ORCS will not survive this region, and we can only hope that AMTA is aware of this when deciding who deserves Open Bids. It is a safe prediction to make that a team who may not be in the top 7 here, may still be an ORCS caliber team. Bold Predictions: Fordham LC B (PR 76) and Temple A (PR 94) will both not make it out of this region.

    Team to watch:
    Haverford College - led by the programs original founders: Jordan McGuffee and Nick Barile; we fully expect this team to surprise a lot of teams at this regional after their promising performance at the Quaker Classic this year (7-1, and 6-2) as well as solid showings at competitive invitationals like their own as well as Rutgers (both teams had records between 4-4 and 5-3 at both tournaments). It should be noted that we know those teams were unstacked, and the teams approaching regionals will be stacked. In fact though, the same squad that made it to ORCS two years ago is coming back with a vengeance after being denied last year. We expect them to actually be a top 3 team coming out of this region. A fun fact about this region is that last year Haverford A (4-0) faced Georgetown C (4-0) in the third round, Georgetown came out with their only tied ballot and a victory by 5. Haverford A then went into their final round against NYU A (3-3) who delivered the nail in the coffin to Haverford (-4, -8). At 4.5 wins, Haverford was the sole honorable mention of DC last year, and was just two spots away from receiving an open bid. To get an idea of this A team, since stacking this semester, this team took 7th at a very difficult Vegas tournament. They then proceeded down to FSU's Seminole Smackdown, where they received 1st place (8-0) and even beat powerhouses like Georgia Tech A (PR: 4) along the way.
    Last edited by MockAnalysisIsMyDrug; February 2nd, 2018, 10:04 AM.

  • #2
    If people enjoy this, I will do more for the other weeks.

    Comment


    • #3
      I think that the DC regional in particular is a weird one. The top teams here aren't quite as good as some other regionals (as pointed out that Fordham is on an off year). While Howard and Rutgers are both quite strong programs, this tournament is definitely missing the usual clear cut #1 the way UVA and NYU are for the other two regionals listed here. I agree with the analysis that there is a lot of depth at DC though. This tournament will be fun since I think it is unlikely that any teams who make it out wont "deserve" it. There are enough good teams that nobody will have 5 wins without beating a very competent team. I do think that this tournament is a little more difficult than it looks though. I think this regional was well researched since teams like Fordham and Temple both graduated a ton of talent, and despite being historically strong, top 100 programs, they will probably be much weaker than their ranking would suggest.

      I would also like to add that there may be some surprises at State College regional. Penn A is missing a lot of talented mockers who have opted out of the semester or graduated. While they are still going to be a tough team to beat, this will definitely open up the field a bit for this regional.

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      • #4
        At what point do we all acknowledge this thread has turned into a Haverford fan blog...written by Haverford students?

        Awkward, guys.

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        • #5
          Results are in!

          Richmond:

          Teams in:
          UVA B
          Patrick Henry
          William & Mary
          UVA A
          Johns Hopkins
          Richmond B
          Richmond C*

          *In from predicted "Bubble"

          Out from "First in" prediction:
          None

          State College:

          Teams in:
          NYU B
          Washington and Lee A
          NYU A
          Lafayette**
          George Washington B
          Penn State C*
          St. Bonaventure**

          *In from predicted "Bubble"
          **Unpredicted in

          Out from "First in" prediction:
          Washington and Lee B
          UPenn A

          Washington DC:

          Teams in:
          Haverford A
          Rutgers A
          Fordham, Lincoln Center B*
          Howard A
          Rutgers B*
          Howard B
          Seton Hall A*

          *In from "Bubble"

          Out from "First in" prediction:
          Fordham, Lincoln Center A
          Last edited by TrialWithoutATheme; February 4th, 2018, 10:51 PM. Reason: Edited to correct which Fordham, Lincoln Center team received a bid.

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          • #6
            Seems like almost every team who could be expected to make it did. But horrible luck for UPenn. Got paired against 1 and 2 at the tournament, NYU A and Washington and Lee A. Managed to split with NYU A, but then got a +31, -1 split in Round 4. Hope they score an open bid, because that’s rough.

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            • #7
              TrialWithoutATheme, wasn't it Fordham B who qualified not Fordham A?

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              • #8
                TheGhostofChaseMichael Yes, it was! Thanks for pointing that out. I've edited the post.

                Comment


                • #9
                  DefenseMid I agree, but they don't have a chance at an Open Bid. The only time a team has gotten an Open Bid with a 4-4 record was the first year of ORCS back in 2013. Teams with 4.5 aren't a sure bet at all. AMTA hasn't even placed them on the Open Bid list, so I can't see it happening. However, they did have poor luck and a very high CS of 22.

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                  • #10
                    Post Week 1 Thoughts:

                    Most predictable tournament - Richmond
                    Most surprising tournament results - State College
                    Most surprising team result - Fordham LC A failed to break from DC
                    Most unlucky team result - UPenn A - facing NYU A and Washington and Lee A then having a +31, -1 split in the final round against Ithaca A... that just sucks.

                    More analysis to come when ORCS start getting finalized! Congrats to all schools who qualified! See you all in the week two analysis!

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                    • #11
                      Funny that the region you labeled the "predictable one" ends up being the one you now call the most surprising [so far. I get that it's a small sample]. But thanks for putting yourselves out there with the opinions, I know it's always easier for others (like me!) to sit back and criticize after the fact instead of doing their own analysis. I hope it inspires competing posters to post their own, like the days of Perjuries yore.

                      Fwiw when it comes to various progs' postings, I think schools like Penn benefit from both the high caliber of their university name and the echos of their success from years past, moreso than other schools - it's easy to overlook a Random City Name School team that's been doing well if you haven't seen them, but (rightly or wrongly) high quality ivies/LACs will be assumed to be great even if they've been a middle of the road ORCS team the last couple years. That's the value/influence of non- mock name recognition. Don't know what success Penn had this last invite season - I don't remember seeing them anywhere. But it could very well be that they're on a slow decline. Sucks to end the season on that lopsided split though (been there, know the feeling).

                      Also I bet Patrick Henry's hoping they get some hype for their double ballot victory over UVA so I'll say - I see you PHC

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                      • #12
                        That is why we found it to be the most surprising! Also thank you for the compliment. We are just happy to see perjuries being revived! We also agree to a certain extent that sometimes ivies and other historic programs can get more credit than they deserve, but that being said, Penn definitely had a rough draw. We think that to your point, past Penn teams may have managed to get out of this region anyway, but between rounds 2 and 3 being against probably the two toughest opponents at the tournament, and then getting clearly a really unlucky judge in the fourth round is just truly unlucky. It is sad that they will not be getting an open bid at the end of the day. Having a CS of 22 is the highest we saw of the weekend for an honorable mention team.

                        Johns Hopkins C managed to have a CS of 23.5 playing both Patrick Henry A and UVA B (both 8-0), now that is a bad break!

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Well, having a high CS when you have a crappy record is not surprising. It's kind of the point. If you lost a ballot that means your opponent won a ballot which means your CS rises. Also not really a bad break that they hit UVA B - they hit because they were 2-4 and UVA B was 6-0, that's how regionals should get paired in round 4, which purposefully pairs high-low. Johns Hopkins C wasn't going to bid out at that point so it'd didn't really matter who they hit by then.

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                          • #14
                            To be fair, Penn still faced the top two teams at the tournament and managed to take a ballot off NYU A. Lafayette played the same NYU A on the same side, but got swept, yet Lafayette had a much friendlier schedule aside from that round and managed to go 6-2. So while I am not trying to take away from Lafayette's success, it is fair to say that Penn had a very rough schedule. Their CS was the highest of teams that got honorable mentions. The difference in CS between someone who went 4-4 and 5-3 should be one point, yet Penn was at 22, whereas from Richmond, Maryland and Richmond were both honorable mentions with 5 wins but a CS of 10.5, less than half Penn's.

                            I think you make a fair point about Penn being a historically strong program who may be resting on their laurels, but this draw was still extremely unfortunate, and based on their NYU trial: other teams did worse than them, but made it out anyway.

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                            • #15
                              How close were they, GooglyMoogly?

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