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Regional Initial Thoughts: Week 2

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  • Regional Initial Thoughts: Week 2

    Please share your own thoughts below. This is meant to start a discussion, if you have seen a team and you think I am over or under valuing them let me know! Good luck with regionals! If you aren't on here, then prove me wrong! If you made my list, then prove me right! - MockAnalysisIsMyDrug

    Louisville: (24 teams) 'the toss up' (avg. power rank: 216)
    - 3 teams in top 100, 8 in top 200

    First in:
    Furman A
    Kentucky A
    Emory A


    Bubble:
    Tennessee A
    Emory B
    Louisville A
    Rhodes D
    Rhodes E
    Vanderbilt B
    Furman B
    Spelman A

    Initial Thoughts:
    This region will be very hard to predict simply because of the sheer number of middle-tier teams. Whenever we have a strong program, like Rhodes, we can expect even their D and E teams to make a run for it, thus muddying the waters even further. The reality of this tournament is that there are a bunch of teams like Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Louisville, and Spelman, who are all used to making ORCs, but not all of them are going to make it this year. Making it out of this region will be no small feat, and I am only comfortable really locking in Emory, Kentucky, and Furman.

    Team to watch:
    Emory University - I am a big fan of this Emory team, led by Devin Mashman as well as big performers from last year's ORCs such as Hemal Prasad. They will definitely miss their powerhouse attorney, Benjamin Baranov, but I have faith that they will be just as strong this year. They had a strong 5th place showing at FSU this year, nearly taking a ballot off UF, the 8-0 surefire victors at this tournament. The same weekend their 2nd team was at Duke, and the performance was definitely not quite as strong as they would like. I look forward to seeing how Emory deals with this difficult region. I expect them to escape with it least one team unscathed, and I think they will spell trouble for some teams on their way back to nationals.

    St. Paul: (30 teams) 'too big to fail' (avg. power rank: 223)
    - 3 teams in top 100, 9 in top 200

    First in:
    Northwestern A
    Minnesota A
    Minnesota B
    Wheaton A
    Macalester A
    Carleton A

    Bubble:
    Hamline A
    Wheaton B
    Carleton B
    Cornell College C

    Initial Thoughts:
    Don’t be deceived by this high avg. power rank, this region has 7, count it, 7 teams in the top 115 teams... There are 7 spots technically available, what does that mean? It means that this is going to be a ridiculously hard tournament to break from. Honestly, I have no idea why AMTA did this, but to make matters worse they have 30 teams here. What this means is that frankly we have no idea what is going to happen. 20 teams are unranked, meaning that they have never made it to ORCs. Frankly, this tournament is just going to be an absolute shit show, I wish all teams here the best of luck, but sadly you could just as easily play Northwestern, Minnesota, Carleton, or one of the other top teams, as you could play all unranked teams and get a free path to ORCs. I am extremely intrigued to see how this tournament plays out, but I will continue to be baffled as to why this tournament has so many teams, and so many top teams.

    Team to watch:
    Northwestern University – after missing nationals for the first time in a few years, and by just .5 a win. They took the only partial ballot off University of Michigan, and then unfortunately dropped a ballot by just 2 points to Houston Baptist (in a trial where they won the other ballot by 18). I fully expect Northwestern to come out ready to prove to everyone that this was just a fluke. Led by Senior attorney Joy Holden (ranked at regionals), alongside junior witness Sarah Walther (ranked at ORCs), this team is returning a lot of familiar faces, whose disappointing end last year will definitely play into them making it out of this region with ease and on their way back to Nationals.

    Note: Northwestern B moved to Cedar Rapids

    Columbia: (26 teams) ‘the numbers lie’ (avg. power rank: 226)
    - 4 teams in top 100, 7 in top 200

    First in:
    Georgia Tech A
    North Carolina A
    Duke A
    Duke B
    Georgia B

    Bubble:
    Florida C
    Florida D
    Georgia Tech C
    North Carolina B
    Kennesaw State A
    South Carolina B

    Initial Thoughts:
    This is a highly competitive tournament. Tech, Duke, UGA, UNC, and Florida are all top-tier programs, and each is sending two teams to this regional. AMTA has tried to mitigate this problem by inviting these schools’ C and D teams, but the Columbia regional is no less competitive, and now has a suppressed power ranking that masks its difficulty. Some programs will get disappointing results, though hopefully they will have some success since most sent several teams.

    Team to watch:
    Georgia Tech – the number one team going into Nationals, having just gone undefeated through regionals and ORCs (Miami tied one ballot at regionals), ended up falling just short of making it to the final round of 2017 Nationals. This team shocked everyone; they swept UVA B, who only lost one other ballot at nationals! In their championship of the Wallace division round against Yale, they split 1-2 and fell just short. After such a strong showing I will be on the lookout for Tech this year. They have shown that they are one of the top five teams in the country. Led by All-American attorney, Sarah Stebbins, and coached by William Warihay, this team is looking like they will try to find a way to somehow improve upon last year’s amazing run.

    Columbus*: (23 teams) ‘size isn’t everything’ (avg. power rank: 211)
    - 3 teams in top 100, 8 in top 200

    First in:
    Penn State A
    Penn State B
    Eastern Kentucky A
    Pittsburg A
    Ohio State B

    Bubble:
    Pittsburgh B
    Dayton A
    Ohio State C
    Case Western A
    Carnegie Mellon A
    Washington & Jefferson A

    Initial Thoughts:
    This is the hardest tournament in terms of power rankings alone. Columbus is competitive partly because it is a small regional, with very few ‘bad’ teams. With only one solo team, Edinboro, and one unranked program, Duquesne, we have a large number of ranked, established programs duking it out. Power rankings don’t take into account the value of playing a B or a C team from an established program, and this tournament if anything is undervalued from this perspective. There is only one C team - Ohio State – at this tournament. The first in teams, Pittsburg, Eastern Kentucky, Ohio State B, and Penn State, are some of the top teams in the country and each has already shown that they will continue to excel this year. The most notable achievement was Ohio State B going 8-0 (1st) at a very competitive Quaker classic this year, and then going 10-2 (1st) at GAMTI. Most of these bubble programs may be more of a shoe-in at other regionals, but this region will be competitive enough that we want to be conservative.

    Team to Watch:
    Dickinson - This is a team that people may be surprised wasn'’t on our first-in list. Dickinson has made strong showings in the last few years, making in 2015, and narrowly missing out on ORCs two years ago, then coming back last year and having a decent outing making it back to ORCs. But, their recent performances at Invitationals such as Black Squirrel (2-5-1, 1-6-1), Rutgers (3-5) concern me. They have lost some strong members, and their program is going through a major rebuilding year. If Columbus were a weaker regional I would be more inclined to put them higher, but between having an off year and being thrown into statistically, the hardest region to break from… I just don’t know if I see it in the cards for Dickinson. I also want to note, that I feel terrible for Dickinson that they can’t go to the Penn State regional which is much closer than Ohio State for them, and truth be told, it is also a much more breakable region for them.

    Editors note: after further research we discovered that their strong attorneys had in fact not graduated but had competed at the Elizabethtown invitational, which the Tab results were posted after we conducted our analysis. Based on the fact that powerhouse attorney Mitchell Snyder is still with them, and their teams claiming first and second at Elizabethtown, Dickinson has somewhat regained our faith. This definitely only makes this regional harder, and while we would be fairly surprised if they failed to make it out, this is the region to do it. Lastly we wanted to point out that the reason for our confusion was that Dickinson has an A and a B team registered for regionals, and since the tab results for Elizabethtown hadn't been posted we had to base the analysis based on what we knew. Not seeing Snyder at Haverford's invitational indicated to us that he was no longer in the program, and we were unaware that they had an additional two teams competing that weekend. We have also learned that their team competed at Carnegie Mellon most recently, so hopefully once we receive the Carnegie Mellon Tabs, we can begin to get a better idea of what was going on in Dickinson!

    Revision: Dickinson is keeping us on our toes this year. Dickinson A was moved to the Buffalo regional and Cincinnati C was added, so avg. power rank was modified. We will be leaving the team to watch, but have removed Dickinson from the 'bubble' list.


    Fresno: (23 teams) ‘More UC schools than you knew existed’ (avg. power rank: 231)
    - 3 teams in top 100, 6 in top 200

    First in:
    UC Berkeley B
    Cal Poly A
    Stanford A

    Bubble:
    Stanford B
    UC Santa Barbara A
    UC Irvine B
    UCLA C
    UC Santa Cruz
    Cal Poly B
    UC Berkeley D
    UCLA D

    Initial Thoughts:
    This is a very small tournament, with a very high average power ranking. We expect the top teams here to have no problem making it out. The middle tier teams are where this gets cloudy. This is the one of those California tournaments that just has a bunch of different UC schools at a variety of levels. To be frank, we have no idea how UCLA C or D is going to do, nor UC Berkeley D, nor UC Irvine D, nor Fresno E or F. These huge programs are just very unpredictable and could have some surprising talent. We are looking forward to seeing how this pans out.

    Team to watch:
    Stanford – particularly looking at their B team in this analysis. Stanford’s A team is one of the top 20 teams in the country, consistently making nationals and just being an overall top team over the years. Their B team has been incredibly close to making ORCs in the last few years, but hasn’t yet managed it! I think this is a good year for them at a fairly weak region to finally make it. In 2016 they went 4-3-1 with a CS of 20.5. They got unlucky facing a very tough schedule for regionals of Oregon A and B, Oregon State, and the tournament runner up UC Berkeley. They were first honorable mention that year. Just last year the B team wound up making it, but the A team went 4-4 with a CS of 21. Stanford just can’t catch a break and I am hoping to see them finally break their curse.

    Seattle*: (24 teams) ‘New record’ (avg. power ranking: 230)
    - 3 teams in top 100, 7 in top 200

    First in:
    Oregon A
    Washington A
    UC Berkeley A
    Washington B

    Bubble:
    Gonzaga A
    Oregon B
    Portland A
    UC Berkeley C
    Gonzaga B

    Initial Thoughts:
    This is a small tournament, and we once again fully expect the top teams to make it out. This is sort of a cool tournament in which we have 4 teams from Oregon, 4 from Portland, 3 from Oregon State, and 3 from Gonzaga. Such depth from these teams makes it a bit unpredictable. If the teams are truly stacked, we would expect these A teams to be competent from such large programs, but should they be more evenly distributed this could be a very interesting tournament for these teams, we are intrigued to see which makes it out.

    Team to watch:
    UC Berkeley – probably the most consistent program in the west, UC Berkeley is poised to make it back to Nationals. With such a large program and the power to travel the country for tournaments, UC Berkeley has already proven their talents at multiple invitationals thus far in the year. It is with little doubt or hesitation that we expect them to make it out as probably the top or runner up team of this region. We feel bad for the UC Berkeley C team as they will probably make it out as well, and it really begs the question of whether or not the Maryland rule should be amended to only two teams making it to nationals and allowing more teams to make it to ORCs.


    *These are part of the new mini regional system in which they are going to be split among 3 different ORCs, note that they are slightly smaller tournaments but still give out 7 bids.

    Again, if you enjoy reading these analysis please send them to your friends, post them to Mock Trial Confessions, or do whatever you want with them. If you are interested in reading more, reply saying so! If you are interested in being a part of the team, please email us at MockTrialAnalysisIsMyDrug@gmail.com. Lastly, these are meant to be conversation starters not enders, we are hoping to see different opinions voice their dissent or support for what we have written. Thanks, and happy mocking!
    Last edited by MockAnalysisIsMyDrug; February 9th, 2018, 04:33 AM.

  • #2
    Really enjoyed this analysis. Would love to see your take on the Orlando regional!

    Comment


    • #3
      I share your confusion about St. Paul, that's going to be a little bit of a bloodbath. It feeds into Geneva, too, which is consistently an ORCS with one of the biggest showings of A-list schools, so definitely a story to follow. I'd love to see your week 3 analysis.

      Comment


      • #4
        Added an editor's note to the Columbus regional. Please, call us out if you notice updates (adding Elizabethtown Tab, swapping Dickinson and Cincinatti) like this in the future! We are far from perfect, and you know your program and your regional better than us! Also thanks for the feedback gopackgo and Quenner. We intend to have Week 3 and 4 done over the winter break.
        Last edited by MockAnalysisIsMyDrug; December 23rd, 2017, 02:31 AM.

        Comment


        • #5
          Love the analysis, can't wait for your thoughts on Weeks 3 and 4 of regionals.

          I have to echo the hype about Northwestern this year, they're definitely going to be a force. I also think any Rhodes team should be considered a first-in team at any regional, given that all 5 of their teams placed at regionals last year.

          Comment


          • #6
            DefenseMid, Rhodes is definitely strong, and I agree you are probably right that they will make it out. But, the Louisville regional has a higher quantity of top-tier, strong teams this year than they have in the past, and so while I agree that Rhodes leads the pack of bubble teams, I think this region may be a little tougher than normal for Rhodes. Not too take away from their victories, but they often benefit from being in weaker regionals. That being said, I think that without Miami this region is missing a clear cut number one, in stead they now have Emory A/B, Furman A/B, and Kentucky A/B, all jockying for spots. In many ways I think that this makes a region much more difficult to break from than having one or two really top teams like it has had in the past. I think it least one Rhodes team will make it, but I doubt that they will repeat with all 5.

            Comment


            • #7
              Ohio State B wasn't at GAMTI. That was the A team. I'm also a little skeptical of putting Northwestern B on the fence. IIRC, they don't stack for regionals, so unless that's changed, their A and B team should have an equal-ish chance to break.

              Comment


              • #8
                The Ohio State B team didn't win GAMTI, but Ohio State did get 1st at the Grand Ole Tournament, which was a weird format where the combined results of A and B determined the tournament winner.

                http://www.collegemocktrial.org/Gran...%20Summary.pdf

                Comment


                • #9
                  Apologies for implying that Ohio State B won at GAMTI, we are fairly certain it was their B team who went undefeated at Quaker, and on the note of Grand Ole and GAMTI, those tournaments show that this Ohio State A and B team are both extremely formidable and both teams we expect to make it to ORCS fairly easily.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Also, while we expect Northwestern A and B to also make it to ORCS, the St. Paul regional is among the toughest regions we have seen, and just to be safe we only wanted to put one of their teams breaking. We wanted to differentiate them from Minnesota, who we trust a little more to send both teams considering their dominant and consistent performance from this region. All this being said, we do fully expect Northwestern to send both teams, but we have to admit that St. Paul will leave someone disappointed.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Summary:
                      Most predictable tournament - Columbus and St. Paul
                      Most surprising tournament - Seattle and Columbia
                      Most surprising team result - Kentucky not breaking from Louisville

                      All unpredicted teams that broke:
                      Indiana B
                      Indiana D
                      Macalester B
                      Georgia State A*
                      Furman C
                      Georgia D
                      Case Western B
                      Chemeketa Community College A*

                      *= First time to ORCS in at least 3 years

                      All predicted teams that failed to break:
                      Kentucky A (TPR 56)
                      Georgia B (TPR 148)
                      Cal Poly SLO A (TPR 65)
                      Berkeley B (TPR 40)
                      Oregon A (TPR 72)
                      Washington B (TPR 124)


                      Louisville -
                      UT Knoxville A *
                      Rhodes D *
                      Emory A
                      Emory B *
                      Furman A
                      IU Bloomington B **
                      IU Bloomington D **

                      *In from predicted "Bubble"
                      **Unpredicted in

                      Out from "First in" prediction:
                      Kentucky A


                      St. Paul -
                      Minnesota B
                      Macalester A
                      Carleton A
                      Northwestern A
                      Minnesota A
                      Macalester B**
                      Wheaton A

                      *In from predicted "Bubble"
                      **Unpredicted in


                      Out from "First in" prediction:
                      None


                      Columbia -
                      Duke B
                      Georgia State University A **
                      Duke A
                      Furman C **
                      University of Georgia D **
                      Georgia Tech A
                      North Carolina A

                      *In from predicted "Bubble"
                      **Unpredicted in


                      Out from "First in" prediction:
                      Georgia B


                      Columbus -
                      EKU A
                      Penn State A
                      Pitt A
                      Ohio State B
                      Carnegie Mellon A *
                      Penn State B
                      Case Western B **

                      *In from predicted "Bubble"
                      **Unpredicted in


                      Out from "First in" prediction:
                      None


                      Fresno -
                      UCLA C *
                      Stanford A
                      UCSB B **
                      Stanford B *
                      UC Santa Cruz A
                      UCSB A *
                      UCLA D *

                      *In from predicted "Bubble"
                      **Unpredicted in


                      Out from "First in" prediction:
                      Cal Poly A
                      Berkeley B


                      Seattle -
                      Berkeley A
                      Berkeley C *
                      Chemeketa Community College A**
                      Gonzaga B *
                      Washington A
                      Oregon State A **
                      Gonzaga A *

                      *In from predicted "Bubble"
                      **Unpredicted in


                      Out from "First in" prediction:
                      Oregon A
                      Washington B
                      Last edited by MockAnalysisIsMyDrug; February 12th, 2018, 02:53 AM.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Anyone interested in digging deep into the tab summaries to analyze the teams that broke out for ORCS? Especially for Louisville and Columbia

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Once the regionals are completed we will be posting our thoughts, but feel free to share your own. Part of the fun is for other people to share their own thoughts, challenge our predictions, etc.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Here are some takeaways from the Columbia Regional:

                            Georgia Tech A had an unusual first two rounds, going +39 and but only winning 2.5 ballots. After splitting with a surprising 6-2 UGA D, they narrowly slipped past a UF C, going +1 and +4 while needing both ballots to secure a bid.

                            Georgia State A had an interesting run to 8-0 CS 13. Not facing any ranked teams, the most difficult team in their schedule was likely either Florida D, or Auburn A. Of all their ballots, only in their 4th round blowout against 2-6 UCF C (who narrowly won two ballots from 0-8 Charleston), did they win by more than 10 points.

                            Georgia B's two ballots lost to Alabama C and Auburn A, in combination with a narrow 0 and -2 round against Duke A, caused them to lose out on a bid. Georgia D on the other hand split with UF D and Georgia Tech A while taking care of business against Georgia Tech C and USC B to earn a bid at 6-2.

                            Both Duke teams went a combined 14-1-1. While their CS was low, they played teams that coming into the tournament were expected to be competitive. Duke A also played UNC A and B in back to back rounds to start the tournament, winning 3 of 4 ballots and claiming a win in the Tobacco Road Rivalry.

                            Furman C and UNC A - Not much to be said here. An expected performance by UNC against a strong 20.5 CS. A commendable, though likely inconsequential weekend for a Furman team from a good program.



                            Comment


                            • #15
                              All you can do is beat who they put in front of you.
                              Mock Trial with J. Reinhold! Mock Trial! Mock Trial with J. Reinhold!

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