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  • #16
    I doubt they will acknowledge it's this bad. Last year the case balance wasn't great either after regionals (even with all the noise caused by weaker teams it was running around 55% P in R3). They gave the overall balance which wasn't unreasonable (again because of all the noise) in the memo, but they mysteriously left out the R3 balance for the first time in years and called it "a fairly balanced case." If they did that for 55%, I don't know what they will do for this much imbalance.

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    • #17
      Stats from Week 1 of Regionals:

      Richmond:
      Total P wins: 34.5 (43%)
      Total D wins: 45.5 (57%)
      R3 P wins: 10 (50%)
      R3 D wins: 10 (50%)

      State College:
      Total P wins: 51.5 (49%)
      Total D wins: 52.5 (51%)
      R3 P wins: 15 (58%)
      R3 D wins: 11 (42%)

      Washington D.C.:
      Total P wins: 50.5 (53%)
      Total D wins: 45.5 (47%)
      R3 P wins: 11 (46%)
      R3 D wins: 13 (54%)

      Overall Stats:
      Total P wins: 136.5 (49%)
      Total D wins: 143.5 (51%)
      R3 P wins: 36 (51%)
      R3 D wins: 34 (49%)

      Frankly, I was somewhat surprised by these. The case is looking a lot more balanced in the wider pool of regionals than it was in the top invites. As some people pointed out earlier, I suspect a lot of this is noise. I also suspect that the D bias is going to be less pronounced with weaker teams (who will have less creative D theories).

      I wanted to see, though, what happens when we look only at the top teams at each tournament. This tells us what the case balance would look like if no changes were made before ORCS. So I looked at what happened if you restricted the stats to rounds where both teams ended up winning 5 or more ballots (i.e. the ones who will be going to ORCS either through direct or open bid).

      Turns out there were 18 rounds between top teams.
      P wins: 11 (32%)
      D wins: 23 (68%)

      This matches what we were seeing with those top invites. Hopefully, if this pattern continues, AMTA will correct the imbalance before ORCS.

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      • #18
        Stats from Week 2 of Regionals:

        Louisville:
        Total P wins: 37 (46.3%)
        Total D wins: 43 (53.8%)
        R3 P wins: 8 (40%)
        R3 D wins: 12 (60%)

        St. Paul:
        Total P wins: 52 (50%)
        Total D wins: 52 (50%)
        R3 P wins: 16 (62%)
        R3 D wins: 10 (38%)

        Columbia:
        Total P wins: 37 (38.5%)
        Total D wins: 59 (61.5%)
        R3 P wins: 5.5 (23%)
        R3 D wins: 18.5 (77%)

        Columbus:
        Total P wins: 50 (52.1%)
        Total D wins: 46 (47.9%)
        R3 P wins: 12 (50%)
        R3 D wins: 12 (50%)

        Fresno:
        Total P wins: 39.5 (41.1%)
        Total D wins: 55.5 (58.9%)
        R3 P wins: 14 (58%)
        R3 D wins: 10 (42%)

        Seattle:
        Total P wins: 47 (49%)
        Total D wins: 49 (51%)
        R3 P wins: 14.5 (60%)
        R3 D wins: 9.5 (40%)

        Overall Stats (Running):
        Total P wins: 399 (47%)
        Total D wins: 449 (53%)
        R3 P wins: 106 (50%)
        R3 D wins: 106 (50%)



        As usual, I also ran stats on the top teams (the teams with 5 or more ballots), and its looking a bit better this week, but still not great.
        P wins: 50.5 (43%)
        D wins: 67.5 (57%)
        Last edited by J.D. Lorean; February 12th, 2018, 12:04 AM.

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        • #19
          Stats from Week 3 of Regionals:

          Dallas:
          Total P wins: 48.5 (43.3%)
          Total D wins: 43 (56.7%)
          R3 P wins: 14 (50%)
          R3 D wins: 14 (50%)

          Jackson:
          Total P wins: 42.5 (44.3%)
          Total D wins: 53.5 (55.7%)
          R3 P wins: 11 (45.8%)
          R3 D wins: 13 (54.2%)

          Cedar Rapids:
          Total P wins: 58 (52.3%)
          Total D wins: 53 (47.7%)
          R3 P wins: 12.5 (44.6%)
          R3 D wins: 15.5 (55.4%)

          Cincinnati:
          Total P wins: 42.5 (40.9%)
          Total D wins: 61.5 (59.1%)
          R3 P wins: 9 (34.6%)
          R3 D wins: 17 (65.4%)

          Joliet:
          Total P wins: 47 (45.2%)
          Total D wins: 57 (54.8%)
          R3 P wins: 17 (65.4%)
          R3 D wins: 9 (34.6%)

          Kansas City:
          Total P wins: 41 (39.4%)
          Total D wins: 63 (60.6%)
          R3 P wins: 11 (42.3%)
          R3 D wins: 15 (57.7%)

          New Haven:
          Total P wins: 52.5 (46.1%)
          Total D wins: 61.5 (53.9%)
          R3 P wins: 16 (57.1%)
          R3 D wins: 12 (42.8%)
          Tempe:
          Total P wins: 50 (48.1%)
          Total D wins: 54 (51.9%)
          R3 P wins: 16.5 (63.5%)
          R3 D wins: 9.5 (36.5%)

          Toeka:
          Total P wins: 49.5 (51.6%)
          Total D wins: 46.5 (48.4%)
          R3 P wins: 12.5 (52.1%)
          R3 D wins: 11.5 (47.9%)

          Overall Stats (Running):
          Total P wins: 830.5 (46.3%)
          Total D wins: 962.5 (53.7%)
          R3 P wins: 225.5 (50.3%)
          R3 D wins: 222.5 (49.7%)

          As usual, I also ran stats on the top teams (the teams with 5 or more ballots). The data looks pretty much the same as last week.
          P wins: 99 (42.7%)
          D wins: 133 (57.3%)

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