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2018-19 AMTA Preseason Analysis & Predictions

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  • 2018-19 AMTA Preseason Analysis & Predictions

    Hello AMTA community!

    We at Mock Analysis Is My Drug are extremely excited for the unofficial beginning of the AMTA season with the case release on Wednesday, August 15th! We’re all about to dive headfirst into preparing the case for early season invitationals.

    But before all that prep starts, we thought it’d be fun to preview the 2018-19 season and make some predictions before we get any indications from the case about which programs might and might not be successful. So we put our heads together and created everything below so that we can start a discussion about where every program stands and where they’ll go moving forward. This post has 4 parts: (1) a table of which competitors graduated from each 2018 NCT roster, (2) our MAIMD top 25 Power Rankings for the upcoming season, (3) a list of individual competitors to look out for, and (4), some predictions for this year’s tournament results.

    Everything here is meant to start a discussion. We don’t expect everything we have to be correct or that everyone will agree with us. But we hope that you find this post interesting and engaging as we transition into another exciting year of mock trial!


    Personnel Status of the 2018 NCT Teams for the Upcoming Season

    In the table below, we have compiled data on which competitors are graduating each team that competed at Nationals in Minneapolis. We used this information in creating our Power Rankings - for example, although Miami won the national championship in 2018, they are losing 7 out of 10 of their A team members, including every competitor from the final round. On the other hand, a team like Georgia Tech is losing no competitors from their top-10 roster. Of course, not everybody who is eligible to return will necessarily return - so please PM us or email us at mockanalysisismydrug@gmail.com if we missed anything.
    Team (in TPR order)
    Who are they losing?
    How many are they losing?
    Miami
    Dani Kunkel, Austin Worrell, Bella Seeberg, Chase Shelton, Da’Rya McAllister, Maria Hooker, Julia Pair
    7/10
    Yale A
    Michael Byrnes
    1/7
    UVA
    Frank Piacenti
    1/9
    Rhodes A
    Meredith Clement, Christopher Meadows, Jennifer Bitterly, Matthew Hobbs, Sean Mattheison
    5/10
    Michigan
    Gabe Slater, Preston Horvath, Garrett Burton
    3/10
    Georgia Tech
    Nobody
    0/7
    UCLA
    Chloe Connolly, Samad Patel, Jonathan Freshman
    3/8
    Stanford
    Ryanne Bamieh
    1/8
    Ohio State
    Eric Roytman
    1/10
    Harvard
    Nobody
    0/9
    Cornell A
    James Pinchak, Benjamin Chasan, Muhammad Mustafa, Olivia Lifflander
    4/8
    NYU A
    JP Baratta, Alberto Arevalo
    2/8
    Chicago
    Christopher Summers, Clio Sophia Koller, Delon Lier, Megan Daknis
    4/8
    Indiana
    Willow Thomas, Leah Blickensderfer, Daniel Schumick
    3/10
    UC Irvine A
    Tristan Lim, Alara Abbasi
    2/9
    Rhodes B
    Victoria Holder
    1/10
    Arizona
    Enrico Trevisani, Nicholas Beachy, Isaac Rounseville, Madison Dodge, Katie Stiff
    5/9
    Emory
    Jacqueline Hayes, Devin Mashman
    2/9
    Howard
    Nazeerah Ali, Lauryn Bowler, Phoebe Moore.
    3/10
    Northwestern A
    Joy Holden, Katherine Cusick, Hannah Givertz
    3/7
    Florida A
    Stewart Subjinski, Matt Solomon, Lauren Pasqua, Joshua Warner
    4/10
    UC Berkeley
    Natalie Bayer, Key'Toya Burrell, Rohan Nijhawan, Justin Tsung
    4/8
    Patrick Henry
    Shane Roberts, Brenna Bakke
    2/8
    Rutgers
    Nicoleta Eby, Katie Dale
    2/8
    Tufts
    Ben Reytblat, Ellie Powers
    2/10
    Yale B
    Vinay Basti, Justin Abbasi
    2/10
    Rochester
    Cindy Molina, Jonathan Dietz, Zachary Marshall-Carter
    3/10
    Cornell B
    Michael Glanzel
    1/8
    Furman
    Liam Simkins-Walker, Shannon Cherney, John Gillespie, Emily Harris
    4/8
    Washington University
    Lauren Spungen, Max Handler, Joseph Ludmir
    3/7
    Wheaton
    Richard Green
    1/8
    Florida B
    Nobody
    0/10
    NYU B
    Jordan Cohen-Kaplan, Natasha Brunstein, Nathan Baum, Marissa Adler
    4/8
    Iowa
    Rachel Bruflodt
    1/10
    Lafayette
    Phoebe Silos, Nicholas Contarino, Tyler Schwartz
    3/9
    UT Chattanooga
    Zeke Starr
    1/8
    Northwood
    Nobody
    0/10
    Haverford
    Nick Barile, Jordan McGuffee, Isabella Canelo Gordon, Nicholas Munves
    4/7
    Princeton
    Nobody
    0/10
    Minnesota-Twin Cities
    Reilly Knorr
    1/9
    UC Irvine B
    Katrina Smith
    1/10
    Alabama
    Chance Sturup, Josie Rykhus, Alexandra Laroche
    3/10
    Xavier
    Maria Raciti
    1/10
    UC Santa Barbara
    Jimmy McFeely, Sudeep Dhanoa, Blake Berich, Justine Jung, Taylar Hender, Ali Seubert
    6/10
    William & Mary
    Kat Mail, Liam Farrell, Dana Florczak
    3/8
    Northwestern B
    Jack Stucky, Sean Van Dril
    2/9
    UC San Diego
    Vivian Pham
    1/10
    Georgia State
    Nobody
    0/8
    MAIMD Top 25 Power Rankings

    Mock Analysis is My Drug is pleased to include our Preseason Top 25 Power Rankings. These rankings were based on a composite of the rankings of all of our contributors, based on our own competitive experiences from previous seasons as well as tab summary analysis and number-crunching. These rankings are meant to reflect overall team power from the very first invitational all the way to the National Championship. We recognize that these types of rankings are inherently subjective, and hope this starts a conversation about the teams we have right and the ones we inevitably missed.
    1) Yale A The core of this Yale team (Bays, Parker, Chase, Du, Young-Perez) has competed together at Nationals for 2 years, and has had about the most different results that you could possibly have. In 2017, they made the final round and were the national runners-up. In 2018, they finished 2-8-2 and 23rd (out of 24) in their division. We tend to think that 2018 was the result that was out of place, hence why we have them ranked first. The open question is if they can replace the natural charm brought by Michael Byrnes. But with their B team making the final round in Minneapolis, and showing the world that they have some talent in their younger members to make up for any graduations, we think they’ll extend their final round streak to 5 years.
    2) Virginia A The 2017 national champions had a lot of turnover heading into the 2018 season, losing over half of that championship roster. But UVA put it together in 2017-18, winning Carolina Classic and Yale, rounding it off with a 2nd place division finish at Nationals. This year there’s a lot less turnover because only 1 competitor, Frank Piacenti, is graduating from the team. Led by Sabrina Grandhi and Deniz Tunceli, as well as their stable of coaches, we expect that UVA will perform even better this year.
    3) Georgia Tech A As the first team in our rankings to return with their entire Nationals roster, Georgia Tech can only get more dangerous in 2018-19. Any bench that has Sarah Stebbins is going to be a national contender, but more importantly, Stebbins is also surrounded by a great team, including players like Harsha Sridhar (who’s on our individual competitors to watch list) and Megan Miller (who was named an All American in Minneapolis). With AMTA President Will Warihay at the helm, we think Georgia Tech will again be a contender to make the final round in Philadelphia.
    4) NYU A NYU had a strong invitational season in 2017-18 only to fall short of expectations in Minneapolis. Not only will this year’s NYU team be one of the most experienced in the country, they also will be hungry for redemption. Trial by Combat champion Nick Ramos returns for a 5th year, along with Claudine Isaac, a strong cast of witnesses, and a Nationals-experienced B team talent pool. They are only losing one member - however, that member is All-American JP Baratta, who will not be easy to replace. It remains to be seen whether this year will be the year when they can finally convert their invitational sucess into success at the Nationals level. This year’s National Championship final will be in the same courtroom where Ramos won Trial by Combat - NYU and Philadelphia seem to be a good combination.
    5) Rhodes A Rhodes A has been consistently strong for the last few years (and indeed for much of the last decade), but they have also consistently failed to break into the championship round since 2013. Over the last five years, they have had the potential to make the final round at Nationals but missed it by a matter of a few points. A one point loss in 2017’s NCT and a two point loss in the fourth round of 2018’s NCT were all that stood between them and the division title. Rhodes is the kind of program that we expect to breeze through ORCS and place highly at Nationals, just as they do every year, but with the loss of some of their top players this year and their head coach, the National Championship may remain just out of reach.
    6) UCLA A UCLA remains consistent in part because they invest in their new competitors. That’s why UCLA is the favorite program for anyone on the Open Bid List — UCLA always opens up spots by qualifying 3 or 4 teams to ORCS. It’s no secret that any UCLA team, from A all the way down to E, is well-coached and competitive, and the fact that earning an Honorable Mention at the National Championship is one of UCLA’s worst performances in years just speaks to the program’s incredible history at the top of AMTA. Losing a double All-American would be a problem for almost any other program. But while UCLA will certainly be sad to lose Chloe Connolly, the depth of the UCLA Mock Trial means they will almost certainly remain one of the best teams in the country.
    7) Stanford A Stanford Mock Trial is a bit of an enigma. Their A team doesn’t seem to compete at many invitationals, and when they do, their results are unremarkable. In the past 4 years of publically available tab summaries, Stanford has not won a single invitational. And yet when the AMTA season comes around, Stanford looks unstoppable. Stanford A has advanced to Nationals with three consecutive first-place ORCS placings. While most teams would just be happy securing a bid, Stanford has reached Nationals with 7-1, 7-1, and 8-0 ORCS records in the past three years. This year’s Stanford team looks to continue the tradition, as the 3rd-place Trial by Combat competitor Jack Seigenthaler returns for a final year. Coach Tom Scher, who has coached 2 high school Gladiator champions, could shift his dominance into college mock trial with this year’s Stanford team.
    8) Ohio State A Last year, OSU showed they could compete with the best with wins at GAMTI and GOT. Fortunately, Ohio State is only losing one competitor. Unfortunately, that competitor is double All-American, program president, and Trial by Combat competitor Eric Roytman. Ohio State returns the other 9 competitors from their Nationals roster, including closer Mahmud Bari. And with the majority of their team coming back with another year under their belt - we have to believe that another top 10 finish is well within reach for the Buckeyes
    9) UC Irvine A Irvine is back. After three years away from the National Championship Tournament, UC Irvine rocketed back into the spotlight in 2018 by sending two teams to Minneapolis. Irvine A placed second in their division, with a close round against Yale B keeping them out of the final. Irvine’s success now is perhaps even more impressive than their dominance in 2012 and 2013, when Irvine was the top ranked team in the country for two years running and when Irvine’s Beach Party was one of the most competitive West Coast invitationals. At that time, Irvine was coached by Justin Bernstein, who tends to bring victory wherever he goes. Coach Emily Shaw deserves credit for helping Irvine return to prominence, as does the program’s close-knit team environment. With 16 returning NCT competitors, this year’s Irvine team should have no problem living up to their reputation of years past.
    10) Chicago A Chicago consistently manages to pull off intelligent and well thought out case theories from early invitationals all the way to the National Championship. While in some years their lack of presentational flair holds them back, this last was not one of them (with four All American awards including several from the same bench). This year, while they lost some of their top competitors, they retained the cores of their program in the likes of Caleb Cole and Regina Campbell, both of whom earned themselves All-Americans and both of whom took the top awards at Downtown.
    11) Michigan A While many student-run programs struggle to maintain consistent success, Michigan Mock Trial is clearly an exception to this rule. 2018 marked the 3rd consecutive season that Michigan secured a top-10 finish at nationals. Known for their creative case theories and their willingness to take strategic risks, Michigan is poised to continue their success this season. Notably however, the team loses both of their All-American captains from last season - Gabe Slater and Garrett Burton.
    12) Miami A You may be surprised to see the reigning national champions fall outside of the top 10. And in most years, we’d agree with you. But this isn’t like most years. Essentially everyone who competed for Miami A at Nationals graduated in May. And neither their B or C team qualified to Nationals. The institution that’s been built by Neal Schuett and the other coaches will keep the program from falling too far, but we have a hard time imagining that Miami will repeat last year’s successes in 2019. We expect to see them place at nationals but not make the final this year.
    13) Cornell A Coming off a year where both Cornell teams placed top 10 at Nationals, there’s a very strong talent pool to pull from to make up this A team next year. Cornell’s talent include rising sophomores Erik Szakiel and Josh Sims, both of whom competed on their A team in Minneapolis. They are losing both of their closers (and their captains) in Benjamin Chasan and James Pinchak, but we think the depth in this program will be enough to put Cornell right back into the top 10 in Philadelphia.
    14) Yale B The first B team in our rankings is fittingly the first B team to make the NCT final round since Iain Lampert’s UCLA B in 2011. Unlike that UCLA team, Yale B didn’t end up winning the final - but they did showcase the depth of the stellar competitors at Yale. Standouts like Nadia Rahman and Justin Abbasi showcased themselves on the national stage. They do lose Abbasi and fellow standout Vinay Basti, but with 14 returning All American competitors in the program, we think this Yale B team will continue to have major success on the national level as they have for the past 2 years.
    15) Rhodes B It really is a crazy year when a B team that finishes 8-4 and 4th in the division is not the highest finishing B team in the country. The depth that Rhodes showed at Nationals means that their A team will perform at their usual level, but this B team has a very solid base to build on as well - including two time All American Kelsey McClain. Rhodes has consistently shown themselves to be one of the deepest programs in the country and we expect that trend to continue into this coming year.
    16) Harvard A Harvard A had a bit of a down year this year with a lot of solid records but nothing outstanding. They seem to have suffered from the loss of the sheer star power they had in the form of Jordan Alston-Harmon, and were relying on a much younger, less experienced cast. This year they are not graduating a single member of their team, so we can expect the now veteran players to put on a solid performance, lead by the consistently hilarious Maria Mendoza. However, if they want to recapture the glory of 2015 (or the high placements of many other recent years), they will need to be more than solid and it remains to be seen whether they will be able to make the leap from solid to great.
    17) Rutgers A Rutgers attorney Mike Kleynman has the distinction of being the only competitor in AMTA to have earned perfect ranks as an All American in one year (2017) and to have been named a double All American in another (2018). He rose further into national prominence with a top 5 finish at Trial by Combat. And this Rutgers team that has qualified to nationals for 2 years is returning 6 of its 8 competitors from its 6-6 finish in Minneapolis. They’ll be out to get back to the final for the first time since 2012, and this team has enough experience to get there.
    18) Tufts A Tufts was one of the programs at NCT who hadn’t qualified in a couple years (since 2015). They qualified through Regionals and ORCS without running into any truly top teams - which in the Northeast is a lucky break. But Tufts showed well anyway at Nationals, earning 7.5 wins and 6th place in the Minneapolis Division. They also have plenty of young talent, with freshman William Porter winning an All-American for his portrayal of Charlie Floyd and ORCS award-winning Kayleigh Milano performing well as only a sophomore. At Nationals, they still had a fairly easy schedule, hitting only one team who placed top 10 or was an Honorable Mention (Arizona). But since they’re only graduating 2 of the 10 members of their A team, we look forward to seeing exactly how Tufts continues to stack up against the top teams in the country.
    19) Northwestern A Northwestern fought their way back to nationals in style last year after their disappointing 2017 finish, taking 8-0 at Geneva and getting their B team through Hamilton. Our biggest concern with this team is that they are losing two out of their three captains (Holden and Cusick), both of whom are among their top performers. They may also suffer as a quarter system school from the fact that the 2019 NCT date is earlier in the season and the prep time cross schedules quarter system finals. On the other hand, getting their B team to nationals means that they will have an entire roster of young members with National level experience which can only help going into this year.
    20) UC Berkeley A Berkeley is another West Coast program with a lot of depth, and they consistently do well throughout the invitational and early AMTA season. Berkeley seems to have a consistent problem with the NCT, however. They do well at invites with other NCT teams and qualify high out of their ORCS even when their ORCS are very hard, but they haven’t placed higher than 9th at Nationals since 2015 (when they were second in their division). With some notable high scorers graduating, we have faith that Berkeley will do well in invites as always, but we don’t expect to see them at the top of their division at Nationals.
    21) Patrick Henry A One of the surprises of last year, Patrick Henry College tore through the AMTA season on their way to Nationals. First they went 8-0 at Regionals (including a sweep of UVA A). Then they went 7-1 and took first place at the Wilmington ORCS (one of the hardest ORCS in the country). Then they rounded it off with an Honorable Mention and two All Americans. Losing seniors Shane Roberts and Brenna Bakke will be difficult to overcome, but with talented competitors still remaining like Cooper Millhouse and Christopher Baldacci, Patrick Henry and former AMTA President Frank Guilizza are poised for another successful season.
    22) Virginia B The third of the three B teams in our rankings, Virginia B is the only one of them that didn’t qualify to Nationals last year after going 3-3-2 at the Wilmington ORCS. But with UVA only losing one member from the entire program, we think it’s likely that this team gets back to Nationals in Philadelphia, and when UVA teams make Nationals, they do well. Aided by the program’s large coaching staff, even their less experienced B team is often able to pull of levels of polish that many A teams couldn’t dream of. With only three weeks to prepare for the 2019 nationals, we expect UVA’s polish to stand out for both of its teams.
    23) Columbia A Columbia has had a rough few years in terms of graduation and it has shown. Two years ago their failure to qualify out of the Lancaster ORCS would have been unheard of, and, while it was still highly unlucky (they had a rough schedule at a notoriously tough ORCS), it shows the cracks already within their program. With the loss of Rachel Sommers and coach Mia Eisner-Grynberg, they have a fair amount of ground to make up in the coming months. That being said, Columbia shouldn’t be underestimated. Their strength this year will be in their witnesses as they retain standouts Jadie Stillwell, Mashell Rahimzadeh and Johanne Karizamimba. If they can rebuild their old strength in the attorney lineup, they will be a force to be reckoned with.
    24) Indiana A Indiana is a program that has only grown into national prominence in the past two years - but now they’re hitting top teams and looking like they want to stay there. In 2017, they earned their first ever appearance at Nationals, and in 2018, they competed at top invitationals like GAMTI and GOT, wrapping it up with another Nationals appearance where they finished with 6.5 wins and in the top 10 in the Saint Paul division. Most notably, the Hoosiers were the team that took the +2 ballot off of Rhodes A in Round 4 of Nationals that kept Rhodes from the final round, the same Rhodes team that had just swept NYU A in Round 3. As Indiana is only graduating 3 of their 10 A team members, we expect to see them continue to show well at top tournaments and another top 10 finish is well within reach.
    25) Arizona A Arizona has repeated the same three-year cycle twice in a row: (1) fail to reach NCT, (2) poor NCT performance, (3) solid NCT performance. The cyclical nature of Arizona’s performances tends to indicate a lack of depth, in which the team performs well only with veteran upperclassmen. After a top-10 finish at the 2018 NCT, there are reasons to believe this year’s Arizona team could continue the pattern: the program is losing double All-American and Trial by Combat competitor Enrico Trevisani, as well as All-American Isaac Rounseville. Yet the fact that Arizona qualified to 2018’s National Championship Tournament with their B team rather than A presents an anomaly in that three-year trend. Arizona was one of only 5 programs in the country to field 5 teams at regionals, where all 5 teams went at least 4-4. With stellar regional performances from both Arizona A and B (8-0, 8-0), we expect Arizona A to succeed with the strength of their program rather than its historical reliance on veteran competitors.
    Individual Competitors to Watch 2018-19

    We analyzed tab summaries from the past two seasons as well as compiled thoughts based on the rounds that each of our contributors have seen. From that analysis, we’ve crafted a list of accomplished individual competitors returning for the upcoming season that we think will perform particularly well. Some of these individuals made the list for taking an extraordinary number of awards this year, others may have taken fewer awards (particularly if they were overshadowed by someone who has now graduated), but based on our experiences with these individuals we think all of them will be stand outs this year. Please let us know who we’ve missed - we’re certain we don’t have every elite competitor in the country on this list!
    Individual Competitors to Watch in 2018-19
    Name (Alphabetical) School Year (Rising) 2017-18 Awards Exceptional Extra Awards
    Deisy Abarca-Espiritu Rochester Senior Spartan, ORCS, All American Trial by Combat
    Christopher Baldacci Patrick Henry Senior Regionals, ORCS, All American N/A
    Mahmud Bari Ohio State 5th year Senior GAMTI, Downtown N/A
    Elizabeth Bays Yale Senior Happy Valley, GAMTI, Yale, Downtown, Regionals, ORCS 2017 Downtown, 2017 Final Round, Trial by Combat
    Matthew Broussard Rhodes Senior Cornshucker, ORCS Downtown 2017
    Regina Campbell Chicago Junior All American, GCF, Downtown N/A
    Adam Chase Yale Senior Downtown 2017 All American, 2017 Final Round
    Lindsey China NYU Junior CUBAIT, Mumbo Jumbo, Downtown, Regionals N/A
    Caleb Cole Chicago Senior Spartan, Yale, GCF, Downtown, Regionals, ORCS, All American N/A
    Sabrina Grandhi UVA Senior Carolina Classic, GAMTI, Yale, Downtown, Regionals, ORCS, All American 2017 All American, 2017 Final Round
    Chris Grant Northwood Senior Wolverine,Red Cedar, Regionals, ORCS, All American Trial by Combat, 2017 Downtown
    Joanna Jandali Arizona Junior UCLASSIC, Gunslinger, AAMTI N/A
    Stephen Johnson Cincinnati 5th year senior GAMTI, Regionals Trial by Combat
    Mike Kleynman Rutgers Senior ORCS, Regionals, All American 2017 All American, Trial by Combat
    Jonathan Kuang UCLA Senior ORCS, Regionals, All American N/A
    Dev Madeka Irvine Senior UCLASSIC, ZOTathon, ORCS, Regionals, All American N/A
    Maria Mendoza Harvard Senior Downtown, ORCS, Regionals 2017 All American
    Heather Pincus Wesleyan Senior GAMTI, Yale, Regionals N/A
    Mary-Preston Austin Wheaton Senior Macalester Trials, NIU Huskie Cup, WashU Arch Invite, Regionals N/A
    Nadia Rahman Yale Senior Regionals, ORCS 2018 Final Round
    Nick Ramos NYU 5th year senior UCLASSIC, CUBAIT, Scarlet Knight, Downtown, ORCS 2017 All American, Trial by Combat Champion
    Jack Seigenthaler Stanford Senior UCLASSIC, ORCS 2017 All American, Trial by Combat
    Josh Sims Cornell Sophomore ORCS, All American N/A
    Harsha Sridhar Georgia Tech Senior ToRo, Carolina Classic, Florida State, ORCS N/A
    Sarah Stebbins Georgia Tech 5th year senior ToRo, Carolina Classic, GAMTI, Florida State, Regionals, All American Trial by Combat, 2017 All American
    Deniz Tunceli UVA Senior GAMTI, Yale, ORCS, All American 2017 Final Round, 2016 Final Round, Trial by Combat
    Mock Analysis is My Drug Preseason Predictions

    Below, we’ve included our predictions for how some major events will turn out in the 2018-19 season. These are the result of a lot of discussion and debate among our contributors. As you would expect, and appropriate of the inherent subjectivity of mock trial, we weren’t able to reach a consensus on any of the questions. But the predictions below represent the majority opinion of our group. We’re particularly excited to revisit this list at the end of the year and see how we did! If you have other predictions like these feel free to share them.

    Comeback Team of the Year - Yale University A team

    GAMTI champion - University of Virginia

    Teams in the Downtown final round - NYU & UCLA

    Downtown Champion - New York University

    Program most likely to get two teams to NCT - Rhodes College

    Team that goes undefeated through Regionals & ORCS - Rhodes College

    Most likely for B team to outplace A team - Rhodes College

    Teams in the NCT final round - Yale & UVA

    National Champion - Yale University

    Top Attorney - Nick Ramos, New York University

    Top Witness - Caleb Cole, University of Chicago
    Last edited by MockAnalysisIsMyDrug; August 21st, 2018, 02:47 PM.

  • #2
    This is awesome. Keep up the great work guys!

    Comment


    • #3
      Interesting to see Ramos is coming back after he was so adamant on the podcast about being "out the game"

      Comment


      • #4
        Did Yale A win a single tournament last year?

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by QuestionMaster View Post
          Did Yale A win a single tournament last year?
          Once they stacked - no. They finished 2nd place at Yale Invitational, Downtown, Regionals, and ORCS

          In the fall with their unstacked teams, the only tournament any of them won was the Happy Valley Invitational. The other teams placed at tournaments like GAMTI and CUBAIT.

          That's still a pretty good invitational record though - the "Comeback Team" moniker is obviously based on their NCT performance.
          Last edited by PMiddle; August 10th, 2018, 10:38 AM. Reason: typos

          Comment


          • #6
            So I compared the MAIMD top 25 Power rankings to the AMTA TPR just for the heck of it.

            Team (MAIMD Rank, TPR Rank)
            Yale A - (1, 2)
            UVA A (2, 3)
            Georgia Tech (3, 6)
            NYU (4, 12)
            Rhodes A (5, 4)
            UCLA (6, 7)
            Stanford (7, 8)
            Ohio State (8, 9)
            UC Irvine (9, 15)
            Chicago (10, 13)
            Michigan (11, 5)
            Miami (12, 1)
            Cornell (13, 11)
            Yale B (14, 27)
            Rhodes B (15, 16)
            Harvard (16, 10)
            Rutgers (17, 25)
            Tufts (18, 26)
            Northwestern (19, 20)
            UC Berkeley (20, 23)
            Patrick Henry (21, 24)
            UVA B (22, 31)
            Columbia (23, 21)
            Indiana (24, 14)
            Arizona (25, 17)

            Ultimately this doesn't say much. I think it shows that there's mostly gonna be agreement about who the top teams in the country are. Only 3 of MAIMD's top 25 are not in the top 25 TPR - and they're ranked 26th, 27th, and 31st (Tufts, Yale B, and UVA B). Yale B's TPR took Yale A's NCT record into account, so putting them in is completely understandable. Tufts just got back to nationals again so that affects their TPR but they've shown to be for real. And the UVA B take is legit as well when they're only losing one person and the coaches are still around, when the TPR hit is from an off year they had (if one year of a B team not making NCT can be classified as an off year).

            But while there will be mostly agreement about which teams comprise the top level, this mostly demonstrates the amount of subjectivity that comes up when deciding how to rank the top teams. It seems to me like these 25 can be divided into two groups: 1-13 (the teams with legitimate chances to win NCT) and 14-25 (teams likely to place but longshots to win it all). Within each individual group, I think there absolutely can and should be a ton of debate and variation regarding how they should be ranked.

            Not a super unique or groundbreaking finding, but just interesting to look into

            Comment


            • #7
              Interesting work. I'm curious what OP (and others) think about the outlook for Southern teams in 2018-19. By 'Southern', I primarily mean teams that compete at the Memphis and Decatur/Greenville ORCS, though I'd be open to other interpretations.

              The only teams on your Top 25 list that fit the category are Georgia Tech and the two Rhodes teams. In the recent past, we've seen programs like Duke, Florida, Florida State, Furman and Vanderbilt make strong showings at nationals, either by placing very highly or by bringing multiple teams, which we can all agree is a difficult feat. Based on your list, some of those programs have lost some excellent competitors to graduation. Along with Rhodes A, Rhodes B and GT A, who are your picks to contend for the top spots at the southern ORCS this year?

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by gopackgoagain View Post
                Interesting work. I'm curious what OP (and others) think about the outlook for Southern teams in 2018-19. By 'Southern', I primarily mean teams that compete at the Memphis and Decatur/Greenville ORCS, though I'd be open to other interpretations.

                The only teams on your Top 25 list that fit the category are Georgia Tech and the two Rhodes teams. In the recent past, we've seen programs like Duke, Florida, Florida State, Furman and Vanderbilt make strong showings at nationals, either by placing very highly or by bringing multiple teams, which we can all agree is a difficult feat. Based on your list, some of those programs have lost some excellent competitors to graduation. Along with Rhodes A, Rhodes B and GT A, who are your picks to contend for the top spots at the southern ORCS this year?
                First, I think there's a decent argument to be made that both UVA and Patrick Henry would count as Southern schools. They both competed at the Wilmington ORCS this year, but geographically they're largely considered southern schools, and Patrick Henry employs a very stereotypically Southern style - that is, niceness, charm, kind of drawling.

                But limiting it to your criteria - I think there's a good argument to be made for some of the programs you listed and not one for some others.

                Duke was the unlucky one of the bunch last year in Greenville with their insane CS. Everyone pretty much seems to agree with that. They are losing Madeline Matthys, who I think was definitely their top competitor. But they're still retaining highly decorated people like Tristan Malhotra (has awarded at GAMTI each of the past two years). And Eric Roytman is going to be joining them as a coach - so I think there's definitely a good argument to be made that they should be in a top 25 list.

                Florida had a wildly impressive year for sure. Two teams to NCT is super difficult and is always impressive, even for the consistently deep programs like Rhodes and Yale. But getting both teams to NCT for anyone can;'t be expected to be replicated again. I saw Florida a couple times at various points through the year - they were very good and the NCT spots were well deserved, but the 4 people they're losing (see the OP) are 4 of their best and most critical competitors. My expectation here is that one team gets to NCT but I think it's justifiable that they aren't top 25 (but I could see the argument for them being placed here).

                Furman got back to NCT again, but they had a relatively disappointing showing and are graduating the last remnants of the last time they were truly competitive at Nationals in 2016 (Liam Simkins-Walker and Shannon Cherney). I don't really ever want to predict that Furman won't make Nationals because that's a recipe for failure, but I'm wary here.

                I think the era of FSU and Vandy being real national contenders is largely past. Not including them is completely reasonable to me

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                • #9
                  Nick Ramos said on the mock trial podcast that he would not be doing mock trial in any form again.

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