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Case Stats 2018

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  • Case Stats 2018

    Just like last year, I will be keeping running balance stats on all tournaments with >25% Nationals teams (since AMTA only releases the data twice a year). The cutoff is mostly because I donít have enough time to do every tournament, but itís also because those tournaments have the greatest tendency to have high level match ups where side balance matters rather than rounds where a couple of strong teams are just wrecking everyone.

    Like I did last year at regionals, I will also be looking at what happens in top rounds at these tournaments, since those are the rounds that affect placement and will, in later tournaments affect bids. Obviously this will be a pretty small sample size for the first few tournaments, but as the season goes on, I think it will get more interesting.

    The first tournament with >25% national teams is Carolina Classic:

    Carolina Classic:
    Teams Competing: 19
    National Teams: 6 (31.6%)

    Total P Wins: 39 (48.8%)
    Total D Wins: 41 (51.3%)
    R3/4 P Wins: 21.5 (53.8%)
    R3/4 D Wins: 18.5 (46.3%)
    Top Round P Wins: 2 (20.0%)
    Top Round D Wins: 8 (80.0%)


    So far things are sort of all over the place (to be expected this early). We will see if a pattern arises as the year goes on.

  • #2
    Two new tournaments this weekend with high nationals percentages:

    CUBAIT:
    Teams Competing: 23
    National Teams: 11 (47.8%)

    Total P Wins: 46 (47.9%)
    Total D Wins: 50 (52.1%)
    R3/4 P Wins: 21.5 (53.8%)
    R3/4 D Wins: 18.5 (46.3%)
    Top Round P Wins: 6.5 (46.4%)
    Top Round D Wins: 7.5 (53.6%)


    Habeas Hippopotamus:
    Teams Competing: 22
    National Teams: 7 (31.8%)

    Total P Wins: 39.5 (44.9%)
    Total D Wins: 48.5 (55.1%)
    R3/4 P Wins: 22 (50.0%)
    R3/4 D Wins: 22 (50.0%)
    Top Round P Wins: 5 (27.8%)
    Top Round D Wins: 13 (72.2%)

    Starting this week, I am also keeping running stats:

    Overall:
    Total P Wins: 124.5 (47.2%)
    Total D Wins: 139.5 (52.8%)
    R3/4 P Wins: 65 (52.4%)
    R3/4 D Wins: 59 (47.6%)
    Top Round P Wins: 13.5 (32.1%)
    Top Round D Wins: 28.5 (67.9%)

    Comment


    • #3
      Classic City:
      Teams Competing: 24
      National Teams: 8 (33.3%)

      Total P Wins: 48.5 (50.5%)
      Total D Wins: 47.5 (49.5%)
      R3/4 P Wins: 26 (54.2%)
      R3/4 D Wins: 22 (45.8%)
      Top Round P Wins: 6.5 (65.0%)
      Top Round D Wins: 3.5 (35.0%)


      Overall:
      Total P Wins: 173 (48.1%)
      Total D Wins: 187 (51.9%)
      R3/4 P Wins: 91 (52.9%)
      R3/4 D Wins: 81 (47.1%)
      Top Round P Wins: 20 (38.5%)
      Top Round D Wins: 32 (61.5%)

      Comment


      • #4
        J.D. Lorean is "Top Round" still considered 5+wins or are you using another metric? I don't mean to criticize since I appreciate that someone is posting these stats, but I feel like there is a difference between a top team at a power protected tournament vs. at a championship style tournament. I wonder if the better metric is the top 3-4 rounds in R3 and R4 (as in the 4-0 vs. 4-0 and 4-0 vs. 3-1 type of R3s and 6-0 vs 6-0, 5-1 vs 5-1, even 4-2 vs 4-2 for R4) I just think that two 4-2 teams that play each other and it results in a full sweep should still be determined as a "top round".

        Comment


        • #5
          QualityQuaffles Yes "Top Round" is still 5+ wins. I recognize that this won't always get every good round. The reason that I went for these rather than, for example the top paired rounds in R3 and R4 is that I think its slightly more accurate. First off, I think top teams hit each other at all levels of competition, not just R3 and R4. This is especially true at invites because many tournaments have a challenge order and so we get tight top pairings first round. But even with random draw we often see top rounds in R1 and R2. the 5+ metric will also pick up almost all of the top R4 matchings as well because those teams already have 5 or 6 ballots by that point (in most tournaments).

          The reason why I don't want to include the top R3 and R4 rounds automatically is because its pretty easy to get situations where someone slips up to a high ballot count early by happening to play some easy teams in R1 and R2. This then gets balanced out in the later rounds when they have to play actually hard teams. Again, this is particularly true in challenge order tournaments because you get bottom v bottom rounds at those. The winner may not be great but they get pushed up to the top of the bracket. Similarly, in top v top rounds, often one team will drop two ballots early and then climb back up to the top of the tournament by the end (but that takes a while). In short, I think it takes seeing the full tournament results to get a picture of who is at the top for the tournament.

          Again, obviously this system isn't perfect, but it at least somewhat useful (at least I think it is) and I prefer it to other systems.

          Comment


          • #6
            Mumbo Jumbo:
            Teams Competing: 22
            National Teams: 11 (50.0%)

            Total P Wins: 38 (43.2%)
            Total D Wins: 50 (56.8%)
            R3/4 P Wins: 20 (45.5%)
            R3/4 D Wins: 24 (54.5%)
            Top Round P Wins: 10.5 (47.7%)
            Top Round D Wins: 11.5 (52.3%)


            Overall:
            Total P Wins: 211 (47.1%)
            Total D Wins: 237 (52.9%)
            R3/4 P Wins: 111 (51.4%)
            R3/4 D Wins: 105 (48.6%)
            Top Round P Wins: 30.5 (41.2%)
            Top Round D Wins: 43.5 (58.8%)

            Comment


            • #7
              Interesting to see the discrepancy between "top round" results and "round three/ four"

              Comment


              • #8
                Black Squirrel:
                Teams Competing: 30
                National Teams: 19 (63.3%)

                Total P Wins: 59 (49.2%)
                Total D Wins: 61 (50.8%)
                R3/4 P Wins: 34.5 (57.5%)
                R3/4 D Wins: 25.5 (42.5%)
                Top Round P Wins: 8.5 (42.5%)
                Top Round D Wins: 11.5 (57.5%)


                Overall:
                Total P Wins: 270 (47.5%)
                Total D Wins: 298 (52.5%)
                R3/4 P Wins: 145.5 (52.7%)
                R3/4 D Wins: 130.5 (47.3%)
                Top Round P Wins: 39 (41.5%)
                Top Round D Wins: 55 (58.5%)
                Last edited by J.D. Lorean; November 16th, 2018, 05:29 PM. Reason: I mis-counted how many nationals teams there were. Thanks to Adevans for catching the mistake

                Comment


                • #9
                  Very odd to see P win R3 consistently, but overall D wins more ballots.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Peach Bowl:
                    Teams Competing: 16
                    National Teams: 6 (37.5%)

                    Total P Wins: 32 (50.0%)
                    Total D Wins: 32 (50.0%)
                    R3/4 P Wins: 17.5 (54.7%)
                    R3/4 D Wins: 14.5 (14.5%)
                    Top Round P Wins: 4.5 (45.0%)
                    Top Round D Wins: 5.5 (55.0%)


                    Overall:
                    Total P Wins: 302 (47.8%)
                    Total D Wins: 330 (52.2%)
                    R3/4 P Wins: 163 (52.9%)
                    R3/4 D Wins: 145 (47.1%)
                    Top Round P Wins: 43.5 (41.8%)
                    Top Round D Wins: 60.5 (58.2%)

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Cornshucker:
                      Teams Competing: 14
                      National Teams: 6 (42.9%)

                      Total P Wins: 27.5 (49.1%)
                      Total D Wins: 28.5 (50.9%)
                      R3/4 P Wins: 13 (46.4%)
                      R3/4 D Wins: 15 (53.6%)
                      Top Round P Wins: 4 (66.7%)
                      Top Round D Wins: 2 (33.3%)


                      Overall:
                      Total P Wins: 329.5 (47.9%)
                      Total D Wins: 358.5 (52.1%)
                      R3/4 P Wins: 176 (52.4%)
                      R3/4 D Wins: 160 (47.6%)
                      Top Round P Wins: 47.5 (43.2%)
                      Top Round D Wins: 62.5 (56.8%)

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        GOT:
                        Teams Competing: 24
                        National Teams: 10 (41.7%)

                        Total P Wins: 42.5 (44.3%)
                        Total D Wins: 53.5 (55.7%)
                        R3/4 P Wins: 20.5 (42.7%)
                        R3/4 D Wins: 27.5 (57.3%)
                        Top Round P Wins: 3.5 (35.0%)
                        Top Round D Wins: 6.5 (65.0%)


                        Overall:
                        Total P Wins: 372 (47.4%)
                        Total D Wins: 412 (52.6%)
                        R3/4 P Wins: 196.5 (51.2%)
                        R3/4 D Wins: 187.5 (48.8%)
                        Top Round P Wins: 51 (42.5%)
                        Top Round D Wins: 69 (57.5%)

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          I could do it, but I am lazy, can we expect GAMTI, Penn State, and Yale to be up soon?

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            I kind of figured nobody cared about those anymore since we got case changes that changed everything. But sure, I can do them. I'll try and have them up in the next few days.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              For those who were interested (keep in mind that these are pre-case change tournaments so they don't reflect the new changes).

                              GAMTI:
                              Teams Competing: 20
                              National Teams: 17 (85.0%)

                              Total P Wins: 60 (50.0%)
                              Total D Wins: 60 (50.0%)
                              R3/4 P Wins: 27 (45.0%)
                              R3/4 D Wins: 33 (55.0%)
                              Top Round P Wins: 4 (44.4%)
                              Top Round D Wins: 5 (55.6%)


                              Yale:
                              Teams Competing: 26
                              National Teams: 19 (73.1%)

                              Total P Wins: 47 (45.2%)
                              Total D Wins: 57 (54.8%)
                              R3/4 P Wins: 24 (46.2%)
                              R3/4 D Wins: 28 (53.8%)
                              Top Round P Wins: 7 (50.0%)
                              Top Round D Wins: 7 (50.0%)


                              HVI:
                              Teams Competing: 23
                              National Teams: 6 (26.1%)

                              Total P Wins: 43 (44.3%)
                              Total D Wins: 54 (55.7%)
                              R3/4 P Wins: 22 (45.8%)
                              R3/4 D Wins: 26 (54.2%)
                              Top Round P Wins: 2 (20.0%)
                              Top Round D Wins: 8 (80.0%)

                              Overall:
                              Total P Wins: 522 (47.2%)
                              Total D Wins: 583 (52.8%)
                              R3/4 P Wins: 269.5 (49.5%)
                              R3/4 D Wins: 274 (50.5%)
                              Top Round P Wins: 64 (41.8%)
                              Top Round D Wins: 89 (58.2%)

                              Comment

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