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Case Stats 2018

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  • #16
    Tracking these numbers across the Fall season, it's interesting that the overall P/D balance has remained very consistent with Defense winning 52-53% of ballots early in the season, and not gaining or losing much ground as time has progressed. Top Round matchups have also been very consistent in showing an even stronger defense bias, with defense winning about 15% more often than plaintiff. Rounds 3 and 4 initially started out as favoring plaintiff, however that trend seems to have reversed itself in the past month.

    It's also interesting to compare this data to AMTA's published midyear case balance data. AMTA has collected over 3900 ballots, whereas this data set, tracking only tournaments with 25% or more NCT teams, has surveyed 1105 ballots. AMTA only shows a 3.3% overall defense advantage, whereas this data shows a 5.6% defense advantage. This data set shows that defense advantage is reduced by 4.6% in rounds 3 and 4 (which would imply a strong 10.2% defense advantage in rounds 1 and 4), whereas AMTA's data set shows the advantage is reduced by only 2%. Given the round 3/4 data trend has shifted over the past month towards favoring defense, this will be a stat worth tracking in the coming months to see if the case changes shake this trend. It seems clear this data set does not count tied ballots, whereas AMTA's does, this might account for some of the difference between the numbers, though I couldn't begin to figure out how much of a difference incorporating ties would make.

    The biggest takeaway in looking at this data set vs. AMTA's is that the more the data is isolated toward the best teams, the bigger the defense advantage becomes. Looking at what is essentially all ballots this fall, the defense has only a 3.3% advantage, looking at ballots only at tournaments with 25% or more NCT teams the defense has a larger 5.6% advantage, and when the data is isolated to the very top rounds (rounds between teams with 5 or more wins at tournaments with 25% or more NCT teams) that defense advantage skyrockets to 16.4%. Some of the top round data might be skewed because of small sample size, but there is no denying that the defense advantage continues to grow. It's also worth noting that those "top rounds" are only occurring in round 4 where the defense bias is lessened. These same matchups between top teams occurring in rounds 1 and 2 should theoretically favor defense much more strongly than 16.4% (likely in the range of 20-25% defense bias). It also seems that this data comparison shows that plaintiff is able to makeup more ground going into rounds 3 and 4 when the data is isolated toward the best teams, perhaps because these teams have a stronger ability to scout and a stronger ability to adjust their cases to the information they gain.

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    • #17
      The first >25% tournament for the spring is up. So here are the balance stats on GCF:
      GCF:

      Teams Competing: 24
      National Teams: 7 (29.2%)

      Total P Wins: 48.5 (50.5%)
      Total D Wins: 47.5 (49.5%)
      R3/4 P Wins: 25 (52.1%)
      R3/4 D Wins: 23 (47.9%)
      Top Round P Wins: 2 (25.0%)
      Top Round D Wins: 6 (75.0%)

      Obviously these are all based on just one tournament so far, but Iíll keep running averages over the next few weeks as we start getting more January invites.

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      • #18
        Ramblin' Wreck:
        Teams Competing: 23
        National Teams: 14 (60.9%)

        Total P Wins: 44 (45.8%)
        Total D Wins: 53 (54.2%)
        R3/4 P Wins: 24 (50.0%)
        R3/4 D Wins: 24 (50.0%)
        Top Round P Wins: 8 (36.4%)
        Top Round D Wins: 14 (63.6%)


        Overall:
        Total P Wins: 92.5 (48.2%)
        Total D Wins: 99.5 (51.8%)
        R3/4 P Wins: 49 (51.0%)
        R3/4 D Wins: 47 (49.0%)
        Top Round P Wins: 10 (33.2%)
        Top Round D Wins: 32 (66.7%)

        Comment


        • #19
          Post case-change Defense teams even after seeing this data: cryingbaby.jpg

          Comment


          • #20
            Shutdown Showdown:
            Teams Competing: 18
            National Teams: 16 (88.9%)

            Total P Wins: 36.5 (50.7%)
            Total D Wins: 35.5 (49.3%)
            R3/4 P Wins: 15.5 (43.1%)
            R3/4 D Wins: 20.5 (56.9%)
            Top Round P Wins: 4 (66.7%)
            Top Round D Wins: 2 (33.3%)


            Overall:
            Total P Wins: 129 (48.9%)
            Total D Wins: 135 (51.1%)
            R3/4 P Wins: 64.5 (58.9%)
            R3/4 D Wins: 67.5 (51.1%)
            Top Round P Wins: 14 (38.9%)
            Top Round D Wins: 22 (61.1%)

            Comment


            • #21
              Seminole Smackdown:
              Teams Competing: 16
              National Teams: 6 (37.5%)

              Total P Wins: 34 (53.1%)
              Total D Wins: 30 (46.9%)
              R3/4 P Wins: 15.5 (55.4%)
              R3/4 D Wins: 12.5 (44.6%)
              Top Round P Wins: 2 (50.0%)
              Top Round D Wins: 2 (50.0%)


              Overall:
              Total P Wins: 163 (49.7%)
              Total D Wins: 165 (50.3%)
              R3/4 P Wins: 80 (50.0%)
              R3/4 D Wins: 80 (50.0%)
              Top Round P Wins: 16 (40.0%)
              Top Round D Wins: 24 (60.0%)

              Comment


              • #22
                Hilltop Invitational:
                Teams Competing: 24
                National Teams: 7 (29.2%)

                Total P Wins: 46.5 (48.4%)
                Total D Wins: 49.5 (51.6%)
                R3/4 P Wins: 23.5 (49.0%)
                R3/4 D Wins: 24.5 (51.0%)
                Top Round P Wins: 8 (44.4%)
                Top Round D Wins: 10 (55.6%)


                Overall:
                Total P Wins: 209.5 (49.4%)
                Total D Wins: 214.5 (50.6%)
                R3/4 P Wins: 103.5 (49.8%)
                R3/4 D Wins: 104.5 (50.2%)
                Top Round P Wins: 24 (41.4%)
                Top Round D Wins: 34 (58.6%)

                Comment


                • #23
                  Wow, post- fall invitational case balance looks really good. I wonder if these numbers are similar at lower caliber invitationals? I'm also weirdly excited to see how the witness call rates have changed because I think that will tell an interesting story.

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by Ali Thomas View Post
                    Wow, post- fall invitational case balance looks really good. I wonder if these numbers are similar at lower caliber invitationals? I'm also weirdly excited to see how the witness call rates have changed because I think that will tell an interesting story.
                    Very curious about the Alex Grace call rate now, witness seems to have disappeared from the case...

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Here are the week 1 Regional Statistics:

                      Cincinnati:
                      Total P Wins: 48 (60%)
                      Total D Wins: 32 (40%)
                      R3 P Wins: 14.5 (72.5%)
                      R3 D Wins: 27.5 (27.5%)
                      Top Round P Wins: 4.5 (56.3%)
                      Top Round D Wins: 3.5 (43.8%)

                      Claremont:
                      Total P Wins: 60.5 (47.3%)
                      Total D Wins: 67.5 (52.7%)
                      R3 P Wins: 17.5 (54.7%)
                      R3 D Wins: 14.5 (45.3%)
                      Top Round P Wins: 5 (35.7%)
                      Top Round D Wins: 9 (64.3%)

                      Columbia:
                      Total P Wins: 48 (54.5%)
                      Total D Wins: 40 (45.5%)
                      R3 P Wins: 8 (36.4%)
                      R3 D Wins: 14 (63.6%)
                      Top Round P Wins: 4.5 (37.5%)
                      Top Round D Wins: 7.5 (62.5%)

                      Dallas:
                      Total P Wins: 47 (53.4%)
                      Total D Wins: 41 (46.6%)
                      R3 P Wins: 12 (54.5%)
                      R3 D Wins: 10 (45.5%)
                      Top Round P Wins: 8 (66.7%)
                      Top Round D Wins: 4 (33.3%)

                      State College:
                      Total P Wins: 50.5 (57.4%)
                      Total D Wins: 37.5 (42.6%)
                      R3 P Wins: 9 (43.2%)
                      R3 D Wins: 12.5 (56.8%)
                      Top Round P Wins: 4 (66.7%)
                      Top Round D Wins: 2 (33.3%)


                      Saint Louis:
                      Total P Wins: 46.5 (54.1%)
                      Total D Wins: 39.5 (45.9%)
                      R3 P Wins: 9 (40.9%)
                      R3 D Wins: 13 (59.1%)
                      Top Round P Wins: 8.5 (70.8%)
                      Top Round D Wins: 3.5 (29.2%)

                      Topeka:
                      Total P Wins: 38 (47.5%)
                      Total D Wins: 42 (52.5%)
                      R3 P Wins: 14 (70.0%)
                      R3 D Wins: 6 (30.0%)
                      Top Round P Wins: 3 (50.0%)
                      Top Round D Wins: 3 (50.0%)

                      Wheaton:
                      Total P Wins: 46.5 (52.8%)
                      Total D Wins: 41.5 (47.2%)
                      R3 P Wins: 14 (63.6%)
                      R3 D Wins: 8 (36.4%)
                      Top Round P Wins: 3 (37.5%)
                      Top Round D Wins: 5 (62.5%)






                      Overall (Regionals Running Total):
                      Total P Wins: 385 (53.0%)
                      Total D Wins: 341 (47.0%)
                      R3 P Wins: 98.5 (54.1%)
                      R3 D Wins: 83.5 (45.9%)
                      Top Round P Wins: 40.5 (51.9%)
                      Top Round D Wins: 37.5 (48.1%)​​​​​​​

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Here are the week 1 ORCS Statistics:

                        Cedar Rapids:
                        Total P Wins: 44.5 (46.4%)
                        Total D Wins: 51.5 (53.6%)
                        R3 P Wins: 7.5 (31.3%)
                        R3 D Wins: 16.5 (68.8%)
                        Top Round P Wins: 5.5 (45.8%)
                        Top Round D Wins: 6.5 (54.2%)

                        Central Islip:
                        Total P Wins: 43.5 (45.3%)
                        Total D Wins: 52.5 (54.7%)
                        R3 P Wins: 10 (41.7%)
                        R3 D Wins: 14 (58.3%)
                        Top Round P Wins: 4 (50.0%)
                        Top Round D Wins: 4 (50.0%)

                        Geneva:
                        Total P Wins: 39.5 (41.1%)
                        Total D Wins: 56.5 (58.9%)
                        R3 P Wins: 10 (41.7%)
                        R3 D Wins: 14 (58.3%)
                        Top Round P Wins: 4 (33.3%)
                        Top Round D Wins: 8 (66.7%)

                        Santa Monica:
                        Total P Wins: 46.5 (48.4%)
                        Total D Wins: 49.5 (51.6%)
                        R3 P Wins: 10.5 (43.8%)
                        R3 D Wins: 13.5 (56.3%)
                        Top Round P Wins: 2 (33.3%)
                        Top Round D Wins: 4 (66.7%)


                        Overall (ORCS Running Total):
                        Total P Wins: 127.5 (44.3%)
                        Total D Wins: 160.5 (55.7%)
                        R3 P Wins: 27.5 (38.2%)
                        R3 D Wins: 44.5 (61.8%)
                        Top Round P Wins: 13.5 (42.2%)
                        Top Round D Wins: 18.5 (57.8%)
                        Last edited by J.D. Lorean; March 14th, 2019, 11:06 AM.

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                        • #27
                          Jeez that's a huge shift. I can't imagine that much of a change towards a Defense advantage was just from Gomes. I guess what they say about Defense teams getting stronger over time really does have a huge impact on case balance.

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                          • #28
                            Originally posted by RedRupee1 View Post
                            Jeez that's a huge shift. I can't imagine that much of a change towards a Defense advantage was just from Gomes. I guess what they say about Defense teams getting stronger over time really does have a huge impact on case balance.
                            They also added some stuff to the other affidavits to make D stronger (more cat information, and more food information). That may have also played a role even for teams that were not calling D Gomes.

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                            • #29
                              I think itís even worse than it looks. Both Santa Monica and Cedar Rapids had one round each where P won nearly 70% of ballots because many of the strong teams/qualifiers happened to be P.

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                              • #30
                                Yeah, this data is pretty discouraging if you are a 4-2 team going against another 4-2 team with nationals on the line: better hope for defense.

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