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Case Stats 2018

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  • J.D. Lorean
    started a topic Case Stats 2018

    Case Stats 2018

    Just like last year, I will be keeping running balance stats on all tournaments with >25% Nationals teams (since AMTA only releases the data twice a year). The cutoff is mostly because I donít have enough time to do every tournament, but itís also because those tournaments have the greatest tendency to have high level match ups where side balance matters rather than rounds where a couple of strong teams are just wrecking everyone.

    Like I did last year at regionals, I will also be looking at what happens in top rounds at these tournaments, since those are the rounds that affect placement and will, in later tournaments affect bids. Obviously this will be a pretty small sample size for the first few tournaments, but as the season goes on, I think it will get more interesting.

    The first tournament with >25% national teams is Carolina Classic:

    Carolina Classic:
    Teams Competing: 19
    National Teams: 6 (31.6%)

    Total P Wins: 39 (48.8%)
    Total D Wins: 41 (51.3%)
    R3/4 P Wins: 21.5 (53.8%)
    R3/4 D Wins: 18.5 (46.3%)
    Top Round P Wins: 2 (20.0%)
    Top Round D Wins: 8 (80.0%)


    So far things are sort of all over the place (to be expected this early). We will see if a pattern arises as the year goes on.

  • happygolucky
    replied
    Yeah, this data is pretty discouraging if you are a 4-2 team going against another 4-2 team with nationals on the line: better hope for defense.

    Leave a comment:


  • Random
    replied
    I think itís even worse than it looks. Both Santa Monica and Cedar Rapids had one round each where P won nearly 70% of ballots because many of the strong teams/qualifiers happened to be P.

    Leave a comment:


  • Gadfly
    replied
    Originally posted by RedRupee1 View Post
    Jeez that's a huge shift. I can't imagine that much of a change towards a Defense advantage was just from Gomes. I guess what they say about Defense teams getting stronger over time really does have a huge impact on case balance.
    They also added some stuff to the other affidavits to make D stronger (more cat information, and more food information). That may have also played a role even for teams that were not calling D Gomes.

    Leave a comment:


  • RedRupee1
    replied
    Jeez that's a huge shift. I can't imagine that much of a change towards a Defense advantage was just from Gomes. I guess what they say about Defense teams getting stronger over time really does have a huge impact on case balance.

    Leave a comment:


  • J.D. Lorean
    replied
    Here are the week 1 ORCS Statistics:

    Cedar Rapids:
    Total P Wins: 44.5 (46.4%)
    Total D Wins: 51.5 (53.6%)
    R3 P Wins: 7.5 (31.3%)
    R3 D Wins: 16.5 (68.8%)
    Top Round P Wins: 5.5 (45.8%)
    Top Round D Wins: 6.5 (54.2%)

    Central Islip:
    Total P Wins: 43.5 (45.3%)
    Total D Wins: 52.5 (54.7%)
    R3 P Wins: 10 (41.7%)
    R3 D Wins: 14 (58.3%)
    Top Round P Wins: 4 (50.0%)
    Top Round D Wins: 4 (50.0%)

    Geneva:
    Total P Wins: 39.5 (41.1%)
    Total D Wins: 56.5 (58.9%)
    R3 P Wins: 10 (41.7%)
    R3 D Wins: 14 (58.3%)
    Top Round P Wins: 4 (33.3%)
    Top Round D Wins: 8 (66.7%)

    Santa Monica:
    Total P Wins: 46.5 (48.4%)
    Total D Wins: 49.5 (51.6%)
    R3 P Wins: 10.5 (43.8%)
    R3 D Wins: 13.5 (56.3%)
    Top Round P Wins: 2 (33.3%)
    Top Round D Wins: 4 (66.7%)


    Overall (ORCS Running Total):
    Total P Wins: 127.5 (44.3%)
    Total D Wins: 160.5 (55.7%)
    R3 P Wins: 27.5 (38.2%)
    R3 D Wins: 44.5 (61.8%)
    Top Round P Wins: 13.5 (42.2%)
    Top Round D Wins: 18.5 (57.8%)
    Last edited by J.D. Lorean; March 14th, 2019, 11:06 AM.

    Leave a comment:


  • J.D. Lorean
    replied
    Here are the week 1 Regional Statistics:

    Cincinnati:
    Total P Wins: 48 (60%)
    Total D Wins: 32 (40%)
    R3 P Wins: 14.5 (72.5%)
    R3 D Wins: 27.5 (27.5%)
    Top Round P Wins: 4.5 (56.3%)
    Top Round D Wins: 3.5 (43.8%)

    Claremont:
    Total P Wins: 60.5 (47.3%)
    Total D Wins: 67.5 (52.7%)
    R3 P Wins: 17.5 (54.7%)
    R3 D Wins: 14.5 (45.3%)
    Top Round P Wins: 5 (35.7%)
    Top Round D Wins: 9 (64.3%)

    Columbia:
    Total P Wins: 48 (54.5%)
    Total D Wins: 40 (45.5%)
    R3 P Wins: 8 (36.4%)
    R3 D Wins: 14 (63.6%)
    Top Round P Wins: 4.5 (37.5%)
    Top Round D Wins: 7.5 (62.5%)

    Dallas:
    Total P Wins: 47 (53.4%)
    Total D Wins: 41 (46.6%)
    R3 P Wins: 12 (54.5%)
    R3 D Wins: 10 (45.5%)
    Top Round P Wins: 8 (66.7%)
    Top Round D Wins: 4 (33.3%)

    State College:
    Total P Wins: 50.5 (57.4%)
    Total D Wins: 37.5 (42.6%)
    R3 P Wins: 9 (43.2%)
    R3 D Wins: 12.5 (56.8%)
    Top Round P Wins: 4 (66.7%)
    Top Round D Wins: 2 (33.3%)


    Saint Louis:
    Total P Wins: 46.5 (54.1%)
    Total D Wins: 39.5 (45.9%)
    R3 P Wins: 9 (40.9%)
    R3 D Wins: 13 (59.1%)
    Top Round P Wins: 8.5 (70.8%)
    Top Round D Wins: 3.5 (29.2%)

    Topeka:
    Total P Wins: 38 (47.5%)
    Total D Wins: 42 (52.5%)
    R3 P Wins: 14 (70.0%)
    R3 D Wins: 6 (30.0%)
    Top Round P Wins: 3 (50.0%)
    Top Round D Wins: 3 (50.0%)

    Wheaton:
    Total P Wins: 46.5 (52.8%)
    Total D Wins: 41.5 (47.2%)
    R3 P Wins: 14 (63.6%)
    R3 D Wins: 8 (36.4%)
    Top Round P Wins: 3 (37.5%)
    Top Round D Wins: 5 (62.5%)






    Overall (Regionals Running Total):
    Total P Wins: 385 (53.0%)
    Total D Wins: 341 (47.0%)
    R3 P Wins: 98.5 (54.1%)
    R3 D Wins: 83.5 (45.9%)
    Top Round P Wins: 40.5 (51.9%)
    Top Round D Wins: 37.5 (48.1%)​​​​​​​

    Leave a comment:


  • Mocktrocity
    replied
    Originally posted by Ali Thomas View Post
    Wow, post- fall invitational case balance looks really good. I wonder if these numbers are similar at lower caliber invitationals? I'm also weirdly excited to see how the witness call rates have changed because I think that will tell an interesting story.
    Very curious about the Alex Grace call rate now, witness seems to have disappeared from the case...

    Leave a comment:


  • Ali Thomas
    replied
    Wow, post- fall invitational case balance looks really good. I wonder if these numbers are similar at lower caliber invitationals? I'm also weirdly excited to see how the witness call rates have changed because I think that will tell an interesting story.

    Leave a comment:


  • J.D. Lorean
    replied
    Hilltop Invitational:
    Teams Competing: 24
    National Teams: 7 (29.2%)

    Total P Wins: 46.5 (48.4%)
    Total D Wins: 49.5 (51.6%)
    R3/4 P Wins: 23.5 (49.0%)
    R3/4 D Wins: 24.5 (51.0%)
    Top Round P Wins: 8 (44.4%)
    Top Round D Wins: 10 (55.6%)


    Overall:
    Total P Wins: 209.5 (49.4%)
    Total D Wins: 214.5 (50.6%)
    R3/4 P Wins: 103.5 (49.8%)
    R3/4 D Wins: 104.5 (50.2%)
    Top Round P Wins: 24 (41.4%)
    Top Round D Wins: 34 (58.6%)

    Leave a comment:


  • J.D. Lorean
    replied
    Seminole Smackdown:
    Teams Competing: 16
    National Teams: 6 (37.5%)

    Total P Wins: 34 (53.1%)
    Total D Wins: 30 (46.9%)
    R3/4 P Wins: 15.5 (55.4%)
    R3/4 D Wins: 12.5 (44.6%)
    Top Round P Wins: 2 (50.0%)
    Top Round D Wins: 2 (50.0%)


    Overall:
    Total P Wins: 163 (49.7%)
    Total D Wins: 165 (50.3%)
    R3/4 P Wins: 80 (50.0%)
    R3/4 D Wins: 80 (50.0%)
    Top Round P Wins: 16 (40.0%)
    Top Round D Wins: 24 (60.0%)

    Leave a comment:


  • J.D. Lorean
    replied
    Shutdown Showdown:
    Teams Competing: 18
    National Teams: 16 (88.9%)

    Total P Wins: 36.5 (50.7%)
    Total D Wins: 35.5 (49.3%)
    R3/4 P Wins: 15.5 (43.1%)
    R3/4 D Wins: 20.5 (56.9%)
    Top Round P Wins: 4 (66.7%)
    Top Round D Wins: 2 (33.3%)


    Overall:
    Total P Wins: 129 (48.9%)
    Total D Wins: 135 (51.1%)
    R3/4 P Wins: 64.5 (58.9%)
    R3/4 D Wins: 67.5 (51.1%)
    Top Round P Wins: 14 (38.9%)
    Top Round D Wins: 22 (61.1%)

    Leave a comment:


  • Nur Rauch
    replied
    Post case-change Defense teams even after seeing this data: cryingbaby.jpg

    Leave a comment:


  • J.D. Lorean
    replied
    Ramblin' Wreck:
    Teams Competing: 23
    National Teams: 14 (60.9%)

    Total P Wins: 44 (45.8%)
    Total D Wins: 53 (54.2%)
    R3/4 P Wins: 24 (50.0%)
    R3/4 D Wins: 24 (50.0%)
    Top Round P Wins: 8 (36.4%)
    Top Round D Wins: 14 (63.6%)


    Overall:
    Total P Wins: 92.5 (48.2%)
    Total D Wins: 99.5 (51.8%)
    R3/4 P Wins: 49 (51.0%)
    R3/4 D Wins: 47 (49.0%)
    Top Round P Wins: 10 (33.2%)
    Top Round D Wins: 32 (66.7%)

    Leave a comment:


  • J.D. Lorean
    replied
    The first >25% tournament for the spring is up. So here are the balance stats on GCF:
    GCF:

    Teams Competing: 24
    National Teams: 7 (29.2%)

    Total P Wins: 48.5 (50.5%)
    Total D Wins: 47.5 (49.5%)
    R3/4 P Wins: 25 (52.1%)
    R3/4 D Wins: 23 (47.9%)
    Top Round P Wins: 2 (25.0%)
    Top Round D Wins: 6 (75.0%)

    Obviously these are all based on just one tournament so far, but Iíll keep running averages over the next few weeks as we start getting more January invites.

    Leave a comment:

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