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Regionals Analysis: Week 1

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  • #16
    Any word on how St. Louis and Claremont ended up?

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    • #17
      For St. Louis, as best as I can remember, sorry if this isn't totally right.
      1. IU A, 8-0
      2. Cincy A, 7-1
      3. Chicago C, 6-1-1
      4. Chicago D, 6-2
      5. IU B, 5-2-1
      6. WashU B, 5-3, Cs 17.5
      7. Wisconsin-Madison A, 5-3, CS 17
      _____________
      8. SLU A, 5-3, Cs 16.5
      9. NIU B, 5-3, Cs 15

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      • #18
        Claremont seems like the most surprise filled regional from this week. Irvine and Berkley's down program teams really showed up and Moorpark's tournament was a very likable success story.
        Last edited by Ali Thomas; February 11th, 2019, 04:02 PM.

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        • #19
          Tab summary for Claremont is out.

          1) Irvine
          2) Berkeley
          3) Stanford (picking up the bid they brought with them)
          4) Loyola Marymount University
          5) The other Berkeley
          6) The other Irvine
          7) USC
          8) UCLA B
          9) Moorpark

          Likely open bid pickups

          10) ASU A
          11) UC Davis C (in the decently likely event their A and B get bids, they won't be able to claim)
          12) Cal Poly Pomona
          13) University of Redlands

          To be honest, I think a lot of the evaluation of the Claremont Regional as an easy tournament ended up being wrong. It was very tough. Several schools that usually score poorly either shaped up (sending love to Moorpark) or dropped out (won't name names). Although Stanford brought a bid with them, they also made the pool stronger. In retrospect, with two Berkeleys, two Irvines, USC, and two UCLAs, there were only a few bids that were likely to go to other teams.Teams like Moorpark, Cal Poly Pomona, and Occidental all did better than they typically do at this tournament, which came at the expense of middle-rank teams that can normally hope for a bid if they aren't unfortunate with the matchups, like my own Pomona College or Scripps or Cal Poly SLO. Redlands B didn't have a good run, but Redlands A did pretty all right, and I don't know that anyone was talking about LMU before they placed fourth at the regional (though to be fair, looking at who they hit, the best teams were Davis C, a mostly [all?] freshman team, and Moorpark).

          The stories of truly awful teams doing terribly was significantly less this year, and not a single team that I saw had a weak performance. That's not to say that some teams weren't a little weaker or less prepared, but there were only three teams out of 31 with an overall PD of less than -80, which is actually a step up from last year, where 5 teams had a PD record of below -80. And the pool was 31 this year, while in 2018 it was 26. Not a single Claremont team went 8-0 or 0-8. And as the team that stole Berkeley's 8th ballot, I gotta say that even though we didn't get a bid, Claremont Regional was one hell of a fight.

          Edit/missed USC in the places.
          Edit/I would also note that one school this year got -79 PD, but they hit Stanford A in the last round and have what looks to be the highest CS of any team, so I think we can contextualize that as just extreme misfortune for an OK team.
          Last edited by PanamaCottage; February 11th, 2019, 05:22 PM.

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          • #20
            Summary
            Most predictable tournaments - Wheaton, Topeka, & Cincinnati
            Most surprising tournament - Claremont
            Most surprising team result - Furman

            Unpredicted Teams
            Berkeley D
            Central Florida C
            Chicago D
            Creighton A
            Dayton B
            Irvine D
            Juniata B
            Louisiana, Monroe B
            Loyola Marymount A
            Moorpark
            Northwood B
            Penn State D
            Rice B
            Scranton
            USC C
            Washington STL B
            Wisconsin A

            Predicted Teams Out
            Arizona State A
            Furman A
            Northern Illinois A

            Cincinnati:
            Miami A
            Cincinnati B*
            Michigan B***
            Xavier A
            Dayton A*
            Miami B
            Dayton B**

            *In from predicted "Bubble"
            **Unpredicted in
            ***Not listed at time of prediction

            Out from "First in" prediction:
            None

            Claremont
            Irvine A
            Berkeley B
            Stanford A***
            Loyola Marymount A**
            Berkeley D**
            Irvine D**
            USC C**
            UCLA B
            Moorpark**

            *In from predicted "Bubble"
            **Unpredicted in
            ***Stanford was in Seattle when we made our predictions but we put them down as “First in” there

            Out from "First in" prediction:
            Arizona State A

            Columbia
            Georgia B
            Emory C*
            Duke A
            Georgia A
            Central Florida C**
            Florida C*
            Duke B*

            *In from predicted "Bubble"
            **Unpredicted in

            Out from "First in" prediction:
            Furman A

            Dallas
            Rhodes A
            Baylor A
            Louisiana, Monroe A
            Rhodes C
            Rice B**
            Louisiana, Monroe B**
            Hendrix A*

            *In from predicted "Bubble"
            **Unpredicted in

            Out from "First in" prediction:
            None

            State College
            Penn State D**
            Cornell A
            Columbia B
            Juniata B**
            Scranton**
            Columbia A
            NYU C*

            *In from predicted "Bubble"
            **Unpredicted in

            Out from "First in" prediction:
            Cornell B
            ***We initially predicted UMBC B as a “First in” team. They have moved out of this region.

            St. Louis
            Indiana A
            Cincinnati A
            Chicago C*
            Chicago D**
            Indiana B*
            Washington STL B**
            Wisconsin A**

            *In from predicted "Bubble"
            **Unpredicted in

            Out from "First in" prediction:
            Northern Illinois A

            Topeka
            Cornell College A
            Creighton A**
            Iowa A
            Loyola Chicago A
            Washington STL A
            Cornell College B*
            South Dakota A*

            *In from predicted "Bubble"
            **Unpredicted in

            Out from "First in" prediction:
            None

            Wheaton:
            Wheaton A
            North Central A*
            Ohio State A
            Wheaton B*
            Northwood A
            Notre Dame B*
            Northwood B**

            *In from predicted "Bubble"
            **Unpredicted in

            Out from "First in" prediction:
            None

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            • #21
              Does anyone have some insight into what happened to Furman this weekend??

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              • #22
                Originally posted by brass_monkey

                Anyone have some insight into what happened to Furman this weekend?
                I expect an absurd judge in round 4 gave the bye buster team the +1 win. Interestingly, Bella Reed won an attorney award on the bye buster team, representing the side Furman opposed (an impressive 19 ranks). Also a strange split with Mercer (who went 2-5-1). Currently number 3 on the open bid list, Furman should get an open bid to an ORCS.

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                • #23
                  From someone who was in attendance at the Columbia Regionals I can at least attest to the fact that the bye buster was made up of many young but talented members from the power programs in Columbia. I'm also fairly certain that many of these programs sent the best they could to the bye buster to take on UGA A in R1 and Furman A in R4. Given the relative strength of the individual competitors on the bye buster and the lackluster performance of Furman throughout the invitational season, I can't call the result all that shocking. Also, the judging pool seemed to be fairly strong in Columbia, at the very least there were a lot less complaints about quality of judging that I heard compared to what you hear at an average tournament. So I don't think it's a crazy result, an unlikely one sure, but if Furman didn't take the bye buster seriously and got behind early, its not insane to think they could lose a ballot in this scenario.

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by STC View Post
                    From someone who was in attendance at the Columbia Regionals I can at least attest to the fact that the bye buster was made up of many young but talented members from the power programs in Columbia. I'm also fairly certain that many of these programs sent the best they could to the bye buster to take on UGA A in R1 and Furman A in R4. Given the relative strength of the individual competitors on the bye buster and the lackluster performance of Furman throughout the invitational season, I can't call the result all that shocking. Also, the judging pool seemed to be fairly strong in Columbia, at the very least there were a lot less complaints about quality of judging that I heard compared to what you hear at an average tournament. So I don't think it's a crazy result, an unlikely one sure, but if Furman didn't take the bye buster seriously and got behind early, its not insane to think they could lose a ballot in this scenario.
                    To my knowledge, members of the bye buster in that last round primarily included competitors from South Carolina and Elon with one from Tennessee and one from Florida. Hardly the power programs at the tournament. Within the last few years Furman has had difficulty getting out of regionals, but kills it at ORCS anyway. This is just another one of those years. Any team that goes into a round against Furman should not take that round for granted.

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                    • #25
                      Furman A failed to qualify out of regionals in 2015, I think, but their B team did, and then whatever team they ended up sending to ORCS that year still got a bid to Nats. So, they manage to kick it into gear when it counts.

                      Shout out to Chicago D. They really didn't look like a D team, they were impressive.

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                      • #26
                        Furman A also failed to get out in 2017

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