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Regionals Analysis: Week 3

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  • Regionals Analysis: Week 3

    Please share your own thoughts below. This is intended to start a discussion - if you have seen a team and you think we are over or under valuing them let us know! If you aren't on here, then prove us wrong! If you made our list, then prove us right! Thank you for reading, and good luck at regionals! - MockAnalysisIsMyDrug

    Buffalo: “Who Will Return” (MAIMD Rank: 14/28)
    (7 in top 200, 4 in top 100)

    First in:
    NYU A
    NYU B
    Fordham LC A
    Hamilton A

    Bubble:
    Cornell C
    Fordham LC B
    SUNY Binghamton A
    Syracuse A

    Initial Thoughts:
    This region features dominant players like NYU and Fordham Lincoln Center, as well as consistent ORCS returnees like Hamilton, SUNY Binghamton, and Syracuse. We can easily expect both NYU teams to come out at the top, as they still retain more than 10 people from last year’s Nationals. While some would expect them to stumble without Nick Ramos or JP Baratta, NYU has shown impressive records at top tournaments this fall season. The new era of NYU centers around Claudine Isaac, Lindsey China, and Tiffany Tam. Merely winning might not be enough for NYU here - they are looking to silence the doubters with a statement victory. Meanwhile, they face challenges from consistently strong schools like Fordham LC A and Hamilton A, who have easily made it out of regionals in the past years. We see no reason why they wouldn’t this time. Fordham has been a consistent 5-3 or 6-2 team at invitationals this season, and should be the clear favorites against any non-NYU team here. Hamilton has been a consistent 4-4 level ORCS team the past few years, making them more than solid enough to move past regionals.

    On the other side of things, the bubble is much more difficult to anticipate here. SUNY Binghamton, St. Bonaventure, and Syracuse have all had mixed results in the last 2 years, breaking into ORCS one year but not the other. Syracuse especially stands out here - while they usually make ORCS and do fairly well there, they ended up with an Honorable Mention at this very regional last year. Cornell C is also a team to watch - Cornell has demonstrated extraordinary depth in recent seasons, and we know that such strong program will host a talented C team. Cornell showed off this depth at last year’s National Championship, where Cornell’s B team placed higher than most A teams. And last year at Buffalo, Cornell C outplaced their B team, with an impressive 7-1 record. A similar instance occurred to Fordham LC as well last year, when their B team outplaced their A at D.C regionals, ultimately winning the program’s bid to ORCS. Likewise, regular ORCS programs, plus B/C teams from strong programs like Fordham LC, Hamilton, and Cornell make for a very difficult bubble to burst.

    Good Luck to newcomers: The Tigers from the Rochester Institute of Technology

    Team to Watch:
    Fordham Lincoln Center A. Fordham LC is, without a doubt, a traditionally strong program. On 2016 and 2017, they made appearances at Nationals with Honorable Mention and Top 10 finishes. However, last year marked a disappointing stop to their success, as they had to end their season with 3.5 wins at ORCS. This was especially close as their loss to Haverford and American was by an average of 2 points per ballot. This year, we can expect this program to fully come back with vengeance. Some struggles are to be expected; they had lost most of their senior class, as well as their star witness Sandra Jovic. With 1 senior and 4 juniors, Fordham are coming into regionals as a youthful program. Nonetheless, they have shown impressive records at this invitational season. Placing at top tournaments such as CUBAIT, Mumbo Jumbo, Black Squirrel, and Yale, they have proved that they can play head-to-head with top-tier programs. So far they’ve been taking ballots off from teams like Yale, NYU, Miami and Rutgers. We look forward to see if Fordham LC can successfully reclaim its power this year.

    Colorado Springs: “We Meet Again” (MAIMD Rank: 24/28)
    (7 in top 200, 2 in top 100)

    First in:
    Arizona A
    Fresno State A
    Denver A
    Air Force A

    Bubble:
    Arizona B
    Colorado College A
    Colorado A
    Texas, Dallas A

    Initial Thoughts:
    It is hard to imagine a regional performance more dominant than Arizona’s run at Colorado Springs last year, where two 8-0 records, seven individual awards, and enormous PDs catapulted Arizona over the competition. Arizona’s success in this region last year makes it easy to forget that the year before, the program also sent 2 teams to Colorado Springs and left with 4-4 and 4-3-1 records. We do not expect Arizona to match their perfect performance this year, but they remain the team to beat in Colorado Springs.

    Arizona faces a new challenger in Fresno State A, a historically strong team looking to redeem themselves from last year’s uncharacteristic results. This year will also be a year of reckoning for Colorado College, a program which has traditionally has breezed through this regional but struggled last year. The program has still not reached the success it found in its first year, when the program qualified for the National Championship Tournament. If Colorado College does not advance to ORCS this year, the future looks bleak. Not to be confused with Colorado College, the University of Colorado looks to disrupt traditional powers and show that their 6-2 performance last year was no fluke. Meanwhile, consistent ORCS qualifiers Denver and Air Force are looking to solidify their spots at the top of the region. After taking 1st place at this year’s Bulldog Brawl, Air Force seems to be in a good place to do so - veterans Justin Maxwell and Myles Arenson have lots of experience in the region and should have no trouble navigating their team through this field. But prediction can only get us so far, as the Colorado Springs regional has been full of surprises in the past. For example, UCLA A, one of the best teams in the country, floundered to a 4-4 record in 2017. The best news for most of the teams here is that the region has 2 more bids than last year, meaning the competition will be a little less intense. Given the number of bids and the relatively small number of top programs, every team that deserves a bid out of this region should be able to earn one.

    Team to Watch:
    Fresno State A. Although Fresno State has the unfortunate distinction of being (we believe) the first team in AMTA history to send 6 teams to regionals and 0 to ORCS, Fresno A is always a difficult team to beat. Fresno’s style, which tends to be less flashy than the school’s California competitors, will likely play well with Colorado Springs judges, who tend to favor realism and no-frills presentation. The Colorado Springs regional has often been able to recruit many of the local judges to sit in their usual courtrooms for the competition. While this is great for realism, the relatively conservative judges tend not to favor some of the same strategies that would work well in California. This invitational season, Fresno has fluctuated between solid and middle-of-the-road and performances, and has shown that they can take their talents out of the state and succeed. A first-place finish at Arizona’s Gunslinger over teams from Arizona, UCLA, and Berkeley may be a good sign for their chances in the region. Look out for senior attorney Tanner Morgan, a Fresno veteran who competed at the 2017 National Championship and has won an attorney award in this region before as well as double threat Micaela Cisneros who has been ranking consistently at almost every tournament since the year has begun.

    Fresno: “Do UC What I See?” (MAIMD Rank: 19/28)
    (8 in top 200, 4 in top 100)

    First in:
    UC Berkeley A
    UC Santa Barbara A
    Stanford B
    UC San Diego A

    Bubble:
    UC Davis A
    UC Santa Cruz A
    UC Santa Barbara B
    UC Davis B
    UCLA E

    Initial thoughts:
    With three Nationals returners and 9 ORCS qualifying teams, this regionals is one to fear. At least 2 teams at this regional won’t have a repeat of their last year’s success and there’s very little hope for a new team to make their first ORCS appearance. But while Berkeley is a perennial Nationals competitor, both UCSD and UCSB tend to be a bit more hit-or-miss with their performances. This means that both teams will be looking to solidify their spots as contenders in Fresno. Berkeley, of course, graduated some of the program’s top competitors, including smooth-voiced 2018 MAIMD top performer Rohan Nijhawan and current Yale Law student Key'Toya Burrell, but we still don’t expect to see Berkeley struggle in the region. UCLA, meanwhile, seems to have distilled mock trial to a science, as UCLA A-E are always threats in their regions. Stanford is an enigmatic school, often making very little impact in invitationals before breezing through the AMTA circuit all the way to the National Championship. Also joining them are the annual dark horses who are not to be underestimated. Here, UC Santa Cruz and UC San Diego fit the bill. Behind these perennial California programs, the field is padded out with several less competitive schools - no Cal State school has qualified for ORCS since 2017. For example, Fresno State struggled in this same region last year, but their home field advantage may be enough to push Fresno B or D into an ORCS qualifying spot.

    Good Luck to newcomers: The Giants from the College of the Sequoias, and the Matadors, the Dolphins, and the Pioneers of Cal State Northridge, Channel Islands, and East Bay.

    Team to Watch:
    UC Santa Barbara A: The Gauchos made history last year upon qualifying 2 teams to ORCS and making their first Nationals appearance ever. Following this great success, was great loss. Since then, they lost their entire A Team bench including standout attorneys Ali Suebert and Jimmy McFeely. However, we don’t expect this loss to be noticeable just yet. Their B team qualified to ORCS last year and their invite season wasn’t too shabby either. Their invite showings included a sweep of Stanford A at AAMTI, a 2nd place finish at Mocktopia and 3rd place finish at UCI’s Beach Bash. Not to mention their entire A team witness line up that got them to Nationals in the first place is still around, and that includes All American Kane Tenorio. Though student run, UCSB is currently coached by former competitors Ali Suebert and Sudeep Dhanoa, both of whom contributed greatly to UCSB’s recent success. Though things may get scarier around March, we think they’ll be just fine come February.


    Houston: “The New Kid on the Block” (MAIMD Rank: 21/28)
    (10 in top 200, 4 in top 100)

    First in:
    Alabama A
    St. Thomas A
    Rice A
    Texas A

    Bubble:
    Alabama B
    Dillard A
    Southern Methodist A
    Houston Baptist A

    Initial Thoughts:
    As part of AMTA’s regional expansion, Texas has a second regional this year in Dallas. This means that some of the familiar faces in the Dallas region have been split between the Dallas and Houston regionals. In practice, this means that some of the biggest threats from last year’s Dallas regional are missing from Houston: Baylor A, Rhodes, and UT Austin. Since the Texas field has been watered down, AMTA decided to bring in a strong out-of-state team in Alabama A. But while Alabama A tends to always be an ORCS-level threat, they will be out of their comfort zone in Texas.

    It has been a while since a Texas team broke through to be competitive on the national level. However, with two Texas regionals this year, there should be more opportunities for a Texas team to reach the National Championship (the last Texas team to do so was Baylor in 2017). At the same time, since the strength is spread between two Texas regions, the programs that qualify for ORCS may have less experience competing against top teams than their opponents from outside the state. Either way, Texas’ strangely insular mock trial circuit makes it difficult to predict the results of this new region, so expect to see a few surprises.

    Team to Watch:
    Rice A. Rice’s mock trial team has never failed to qualify out of regionals. This may have something to do with the fact that Rice has only competed at one regional. But despite the program’s youth, this small Texas school has big dreams for their 2019 AMTA season. Last year, Rice started off right by qualifying for ORCS and putting up a strong 4-3-1 ORCS showing. Rice has only improved since then - after their ORCS experience, the program has expanded to multiple teams and hosted their first invitational tournament. Rice should be coming into this regional more prepared than ever, and ready to make a splash on the AMTA scene.

    Louisville: “The Big Three” (MAIMD Rank: 16/28)
    (8 in top 200, 3 in top 100)

    First In:
    Rhodes B
    UT Chattanooga A
    Eastern Kentucky A

    Bubble:
    Tennessee A
    Vanderbilt A
    Rhodes D
    Miami C

    Initial Thoughts:
    One of the more top-heavy regionals of week 3, Louisville hosts three teams who have made National Championship appearances in recent years: UT Chattanooga A, Rhodes B, and Eastern Kentucky A. While all three teams should make it to ORCS, the odds are good that not all three will make it back to the National Championship year. Rhodes B should have no issues, with a top 10 finish at last year’s National Championship. Both Chattanooga and Eastern Kentucky are facing similar problems: both have had back-to-back NCT appearances in recent years, both led by All-American attorneys (Zeke Starr and Allie Maples). Chattanooga is not lacking in star power this year, however: both Peter Zegler and Hannah Oliver have been top-performing competitors this season. They finished with a 6-2 record at Ramblin Wreck against some tough Nationals-level competition. Although making the National Championship may be a challenge, we expect to see them make it out of regionals without a problem. EKU, meanwhile, is still one of the toughest teams in the region - EKU won last year’s Columbus regional, after all. And looking at their 6-2 performance at GOT, EKU should have no problems here - but given the B team’s 0-8 record, we don’t expect EKU B to be as serious of a contender here. The only real risk for any of the first-in teams is that they may have to face one another through bad ballot luck. But barring incredibly bad fortune, these teams control their own destiny. After these top teams, the level of competition falls off significantly. Vanderbilt, while hosting a traditionally top-level tournament, has not kept up the same level of competition within their own program. This culminated last year when the Grand Ole Tournament hosts missed out on ORCS for the first time in years.

    Team to Watch:
    Tennessee A. Tennessee came incredibly close to a National Championship bid last year, and after going 8-0 at last year’s Louisville regional, they could be dangerous here. Their B team’s 5-3 record at last year’s Memphis ORCS included a -47 shellacking at the hands of UC Berkeley, while Tennessee A seemed to hold their own against Rhodes A. UT did well at the Mid-South Invitational with a 6-2 record this year, although that record was flipped 2-6 at Capital City. Look out for Kiersten Marsh as either an attorney or a witness - she has won AMTA awards as both, with an ORCS attorney award and a regionals witness award last year.


    Minneapolis: “Illinois Invasion” (MAIMD Rank: 19/28)
    (6 in top 200, 3 in top 100)

    First in:
    Chicago A
    Chicago B
    Minnesota A

    Bubble:
    Macalester A
    Macalester B
    Carleton A
    Minnesota B

    Initial Thoughts:
    One of the advantages of Chicago’s Great Chicago Fire tournament format is that the program is used to dominating not just as Chicago A and Chicago B, but as a unified team. We expect them to do that here. Chicago is returning to Minneapolis after a strong performance at last year’s National Championship, looking to pick up where they left off. Although they graduated several key members from last year’s NCT team including two of their three All-Americans, and our predicted Top Witness Caleb Cole has not been seen competing this year, Chicago A has still posted a strong invitational season so far, including a third place finish at GAMTI and winning their own GCFI. The other traditional power at this regional is Minnesota A, a regular ORCS and occasional Nationals competitor (including last year). Aside from the nationals returners, we have a group of teams who qualified to ORCS last year but posted losing records once there. Macalester will be looking to follow up last year’s success in qualifying two teams to ORCS, and Carleton and Minnesota B will aim to improve upon their recent ORCS records.

    In addition to the top ranked teams, one interesting aspect of this regional is the composition of the unranked teams. Minneapolis’s ratio of unranked teams to ranked teams is already high, and among the unranked teams there are no C teams from typically strong programs (who may be unranked but are deceptively dangerous). In fact, there’s only a single C team attending this regional. While in other regions we often expect strong C and D teams to take bids despite being unranked, we expect this region to fall somewhat more in line with what TPR predicts, and TPR suggests that the bottom of this field is pretty weak.

    Team to Watch:
    Minnesota A seems to be returning every member from a team that qualified to Nationals last year. They will certainly be hoping to repeat that accomplishment and finish with a higher placement at the NCT. So far, they’ve posted a variety of records across the invitational season, including 4-4 at Cornshucker, 6-2 at Yale, and 5-10-1 (in combination with their B team) at GCFI. While it’s hard to be sure of what this range of results predicts, their challenging tournament schedule and success even outside of their region are promising going into the competitive season. We expect them to be more consistent at regionals where (with the exception of Chicago) they won’t have to face the same level of competition.



    Orlando: “Two by Two” (MAIMD Rank: 10/28)
    (8 in top 200, 3 in top 100)

    First in:
    Emory A
    Florida A
    Florida B

    Bubble:
    Emory B
    Furman B
    Central Florida A
    Palm Beach A
    South Carolina A
    Georgia Tech C
    Florida International A

    Initial Thoughts:
    Emory and Florida are treated to a fairly large regional with a lot of unproven teams. Florida International and Palm Beach Atlantic surprised everyone with their performances at regionals last year but definitely left something to be desired at ORCS. They will certainly be hoping to bid straight through and to prove that they belong at ORCS. Florida shocked a lot of people when their A and B took first and second place at what people thought was one of the most difficult ORCS in the country. But they certainly left a lot to be desired at Nationals - where neither team managed to bring home any metal. Emory, on the other hand, snuck their way through that same ORCS, and went to Nationals and had a very respectable showing. Either way, both programs have shown their consistency time and again, and nothing this year would suggest otherwise. Central Florida has made it to ORCS for each of the last few years, but they never manage to get more than 3 wins there. This is a top heavy enough regional that if they hit the wrong teams that streak may end for them. Something we are really looking forward to seeing is how Georgia Tech C and D will do. Georgia Tech’s A team is without a doubt one of the top 10 if not top 5 teams in the country, and their B team has shown some recent success - making it to ORCS 2 of the last couple years, but Georgia Tech hasn’t reached the UCLA, Rhodes, Patrick Henry, Chicago, status quite yet of having 3+ teams bid to ORCS fairly consistently

    Good Luck to newcomers: The Golden Stallions of Abraham Baldwin College

    Team To Watch:
    Florida International University is the newest in a long line of brand new programs to start off with a bang. In just their first year they got an Open Bid to the horrifying Wilmington ORCS. It is safe to say that they were a little out of their depth, but hopefully they were able to learn something after playing powers like Fordham and Rutgers and they hopefully took something back with them. Returning the same squad that managed to squeak out of this regional last year on an Open Bid, eyes will be on Presidents Bruno Paes-Leme and Dane Pennerman, alongside strong young attorney Gabriella Pinzon to really show up this year. They have done much more travelling this year than in the past, they went all the way up to Fordham’s tournament where they had an impressive 5-2-1 showing, in which they managed to sweep an impressive Hamilton team. FIU hopes to continue this momentum into Orlando to continue their early success.


    Owings Mills: “Bang or Bust” (MAIMD RANK: 9/28)
    (10 in top 200, 4 in top 100)

    First in:
    Rutgers A
    Haverford A
    UMBC A
    Lafayette A
    La Salle A

    Bubble:
    Seton Hall A
    Wesleyan B
    Temple A
    Haverford B
    Lafayette B
    St. Johns A
    Stevenson A

    Initial Thoughts:
    By far, the top team to beat here is definitely Rutgers, but Owings Mills is the opportunity for a lot of surprises successes from last year to prove themselves. UMBC, Haverford, and Lafayette are all recent rising powers who are hoping to solidify themselves (We hope to see Haverford and UMBC in a round to see who would win between our two favorite podcast hosts). Additionally we have programs like Temple, St. Johns, Fordham Rose Hill, and Dickinson, all of whom have struggled in recent years, but they have had historic success. Both Fordham Rose Hill and Dickinson have used untraditional stacking styles in past years where they don’t have a true A, B, or C, but rather have what are meant to be equal teams. As a result, these teams are harder to predict. But besded off this year’s invitationals, neither team has shown the type of strength to make us optimistic that they will make it out of this rough region. Beyond these teams Seton Hall has manage to get to ORCS each of the last 3 years, and they will hope to continue that streak. La Salle is an interesting program that emerged in a big way with 5 wins at ORCS 2 years ago, but after a strong showing at regionals, they had quite a disappointing ORCS performance last year. Another team that may go under the radar here is Wesleyan B. They had an impressive 8-0 showing at regionals from both their A and B team, and even their C team received a bid. Wesleyan has shown some true depth that makes even their B team, one that should not be overlooked here.

    Good Luck to newcomers: The Owls of Bryn Mawr College

    Team to Watch:
    Lafayette is the ultimate cinderella story of Mock Trial. They called us out at nationals for good reason. We underestimated this small liberal arts college in Pennsylvania, but they proved us, and everyone wrong. Through round 3 of nationals, Lafayette was in the top round for their nationals division against Miami! They managed to beat Northwood, Cornell, and Patrick Henry. So, expectations were high coming into this year for Lafayette to prove that this wasn’t just odd judging and that they deserved to be considered at the highest level. Their showing at Black Squirrel was unfortunately not the same caliber as what we saw at Nationals - against a similar field, but Lafayette saw a lot of success at Rochester’s tournament where they took home 5th place (interestingly enough La Salle A managed to get first here and even beat Lafayette in a round at that tournament, so Lafayette may be on the lookout to avenge that previous showing). Lafayette is led by their president Jessica Ackendorf, but everyone should have their eyes All-American Molly Fawcett who received and All-American award as just a freshman! She is yet to receive any awards this year, but hopefully come regionals that will change.

    Princeton: “The Second Level” (MAIMD Rank: 7/28)
    (7 in top 200, 4 in top 100)

    First in:
    Princeton A
    Yale B
    Tufts B

    Bubble:
    Boston College A
    Boston University B
    Amherst A
    Princeton B
    Boston College B
    Boston University C
    UMBC B
    Tufts C



    Initial Thoughts:
    This region is dominated by B teams from powerful programs with two of our first in teams and 7/10 of our top teams being B teams or lower. The top of this field is dominated by teams who were highly successful last year but have had very patchy perfomancs over the last three. At the top we have Princeton, who are looking to continue their winning streak from last year after several dry years. They are followed by Yale B who have an interesting record at this regional. Last year, this was the regional that took out a Yale B that was largely the same as the team that had just taken 5th in their division at nationals. This sparked the Yale B/Yale C combo team that ended up winning their division at nationals. We suspect therefore, that Yale will be a bit leery of sending their team back to a place where they had such bad luck last year. Filling out the top of our bracket is Tufts B. Tufts has performed well at invitationals both stacked and unstacked this season and we suspect this indicated a depth that will carry on to their B team.

    This regional also has a huge bubble, with more B and C teams from successful schools, and in particular Boston College and Boston University who have been known to get their bids with B and C (or even D) teams rather than A depending on the year. Joining them we have Boston College A, who by TPR should be in the first in but who have had a lot of ups and down over the last two years making us less sure of their success. We will see if they prove us wrong.

    Good Luck to newcomers: The Panthers of Middlebury College

    Team to Watch:
    Princeton: Princeton was at the top of the game in 2014, the last year without a new case. And then they graduated a class of seniors and fell off significantly. In 2015 they made it to nationals but dropped down to a 10th place 6-6 record. The next two years they didn’t even have a winning record at ORCS. Then last year, they managed to come back, earning a bid to nationals at 7-1, taking a ballot off of Harvard at ORCS. They didn’t have a stellar run at nationals, but they are presumably hoping to come back this year and correct that. The question for Princeton, then, will be whether they can beat the volatility that had plagued them over the last couple of years. So far, their records at top invites have been middling with 3-5 at CUBAIT, 3.5-4.5 at Habbeas Hippopotamus, and 7.5-4.5 at Colonial Classic, 4.5-3.5 at Happy Valley, and 4-4 at yale. This means they have had no top tournament placements this fall. On the other hand, they have been unstacked so consistent middling placements may indicate that when they stack into an A and B, their A is formidable. In any case we expect them to do well at regionals and it’s just a question of what happens at ORCS.




    Washington DC: “Where are the weak teams?” (MAIMD Rank: 8/28)
    (6 in top 200, 5 in top 100)

    First in:
    Howard A
    Howard B
    Richmond A
    William and Mary A

    Bubble:
    American B
    Maryland A
    UNC B
    Penn B
    Patrick Henry C
    GW C

    Initial Thoughts:

    This is a deceptively difficult regional. C and D teams from programs like Patrick Henry are often times very dangerous. When you couple them with a historically powerful program like Howard and up and comers William and Mary and you have what looks like a difficult regional. Additionally, American will be an interesting team here seeing as they had a disappointing end to last years season as the only 5.5 win team at ORCS to not make Nationals. They graduated a number of seniors last year and are in what looks like both a rebuilding and a reputational year. While their A will be competing at Chapel Hill, look to American B and C to have a strong showing here to solidify American as a top program. Similarly, Richmond is another team that got beaten out by the buzz saw that was Wilmington ORCS last year. Richmond definitely has something to prove here. DC regionals always seems to be a truly terrifying tournament to be at simply because of the depth of strong teams. The four First-In teams are of course scary, but our bar for Bubble teams should not be quickly overlooked. Maryland A, one of the strongest programs of all time is listed on the bubble here - due to recent struggles for their program. The problem is that the number of truly no-power teams here is so low. Majority of these teams come from well-known, strong programs and will not roll over easily.

    Team to watch: William and Mary

    Last year was the year of the liberal arts college. Lafayette’s cinderella story may have overshadowed the performance of William and Mary, but we want to give it its due time. William and Mary had been quite strong for some time, but last year the pieces finally came together at ORCS and they made it out. After losing some of their firepower in Kat Mail and Liam Farrell, William and Mary retained their absolutely massive current senior class. This is the year for William and Mary to solidify their standing, with a total of 11 seniors, this team will be very different next year to say the least. William and Mary has had some very strong and very consistent showings over the years, and this year seems to be no different. So far, William and Mary’s most notable invitational showings have been at their own Colonial Classic, where they took 3rd place, and with an impressive 2 out of 3 ballots from UVA. Look to William and Mary and their strong contingency of seniors to make it through this regional without much trouble. While William and Mary has historically struggled to completely sweep many rounds, but they consistently take a ballot, taking a look at Wilmington ORCS - William and Mary took 1.5 off UVA B, 1 off Richmond A, 1 off Patrick Henry B, and then swept Johns Hopkins, while none of those teams made it to nationals, all four rounds were against teams that finished with four wins or more, this attribute of not getting shut out against middle-top tier teams is a good attribute that will serve them well getting through regionals.
    Last edited by MockAnalysisIsMyDrug; January 25th, 2019, 02:52 AM.

  • #2
    Curious as to why Arizona is the team to beat over Fresno at Colorado Springs? Looking at the tab summaries of different invitationals, it seems like Fresno has had far more success this year than Arizona. I'm pretty sure Tanner Morgan and Micaela Cisneros together have won more awards than Arizona as a whole this year. It seems pretty clear to me that Arizona is vastly overrated this year, especially since they had so many people from their 2018 Nats team graduate, with no one filling the shoes of the big names they lost (Trevisani, Rounseville, etc.). Admittedly, I'm not too familiar with Arizona as a program, but I haven't heard of any up-and-coming mockers from Arizona this year.

    Comment


    • #3
      Curious as to why Arizona is the team to beat over Fresno at Colorado Springs? Looking at the tab summaries of different invitationals, it seems like Fresno has had far more success this year than Arizona. I'm pretty sure Tanner Morgan and Micaela Cisneros together have won more awards than Arizona as a whole this year. It seems pretty clear to me that Arizona is vastly overrated this year, especially since they had so many people from their 2018 Nats team graduate, with no one filling the shoes of the big names they lost (Trevisani, Rounseville, etc.). Admittedly, I'm not too familiar with Arizona as a program, but I haven't heard of any up-and-coming mockers from Arizona this year.
      Maybe they're taking last year's regional results into account?
      Fresno Arizona
      A 4-4 8-0
      B 3-4-1 8-0
      C 4-4 5-3
      D 2-5-1 4-4
      E 3-5 -
      F 3-4-1 -
      Win% 43% 78%


      Or I guess it could be the ORCS results?
      Fresno Arizona
      A - 4-4
      B - 6-2


      Or maybe the National Championship results?
      Fresno Arizona
      A - 8-4
      Placement - 5th


      Or maybe they're just looking at TPR?
      Fresno Arizona Differential
      A 143 17 Arizona +126
      B 241 135 Arizona +106

      Or perhaps they took a more historic approach to TPR?
      Higher Ranked Team
      2018 Arizona
      2017 Arizona
      2016 Arizona
      2015 Arizona
      2014 Arizona
      2013 Arizona
      2012 Arizona

      I mean I guess they might have considered the last time the two A teams faced each other head-to-head?
      Fresno Arizona
      Head-to-head PD -10, -16 +10, +16

      This is Mock Analysis, after all - they might have used some complicated statistical measurements. For example:

      NTSSTRZO (Number of Times Sending Six Teams to Regionals and Zero to ORCS)

      NGA (Number of GAMTIs Attended)

      ITPARLTOBT? (Is This Program's A Team Ranked Lower Than the Other's B Team?)
      Fresno Arizona
      NTSSTRZO 1 0
      NGA 2018 0 1
      ITPARLTOBT Yes No

      Arizona might be overrated, but Fresno is correctly rated as not good.
      Last edited by DefenseMid; January 25th, 2019, 04:07 PM.

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      • #4
        Lmao this guy really made an account just to call Arizona overrated.

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        • #5
          therealmockprodigy Lol fair enough, I do lurk on here quite often but just haven't made an account yet. In response to DefenseMid, if that's the case then fair enough, but doesn't it seem a little counterproductive to base this years' regionals predictions off of last years results? It's pretty clear that in terms of results from this year, Fresno A has been at the very least on par, if not superior to Arizona A, regardless of what the TPRs might indicate. If we look at all the results from the invitationals this year (excluding UCLA as of now because the tab summary hasn't been released yet), their placements at different invitationals seem fairly similar- with the exception of Fresno's placement at Arizona's own tournament (1st, 7-1 record) above other teams like Berkeley and UCLA. Even considering individual awards, Fresno seems to have far more success than Arizona, with Arizona having no strong consistent performers.
          Fresno Arizona
          Classic City (UGA) N/A Records: 2-6, 4-4; Awards: Vincent Bai (1), Adrian Ford (1)
          Spartan Throwdown (Case Western) N/A Records: 4-4, 3-3-2;
          Awards: Sara Carbajal (1)
          Wlodarczyk Invitational (UCSD) Records: 5-3, 2-4-2;
          Awards: Lauryn Flores (2)
          N/A
          AAMTI (Berkeley) Records: 2-6, 4-4; Awards: Emily Kron (1), Savannah Sanchez (1) N/A
          Black Squirrel (Haverford) N/A Record: 3-5;
          Awards: None
          Irvine Showdown (UC Irvine) Records: 1-3, 1-3; Awards: Micaela Cisneros (1) Records: 2-2, 3-1;
          Awards: Celyn Jacobs (1)
          Gunslinger (Arizona) Record: 7-1; Awards: Tanner Morgan (1), Lauryn Flores (1) Records: 5-3, 6-2;
          Awards: Kaylee Nelson (1)
          Mocktopia (UCSB) Records: 5-3, 6-2, 2-4-2;
          Awards: Micaela Cisneros (2), Kayleigh O'Connor (1), Jackson Hadden (1), Beverley Perez (1), Bethany Samarin (1)
          N/A
          GAMTI (UVA) N/A Record: 5-6-1;
          Awards: Sam Whitthorne (1), Raad Syed (1)
          Emerald City Open (Washington) Record: 4-7-1; Awards: Esmeralda Romero (1) N/A
          Cowtown Classic (UC Davis) Records: 5-2-1, 2-6, 3-5; Awards: Bethany Samarin (1), Micaela Cisneros (1), Jaskeet Raika (1) N/A

          Obviously, this could be a case like Stanford (flubbing at invitationals, but breezing through regionals and ORCs), but as of yet, Arizona hasn't distinctly shown that they're properly rated at 17th this year. To say that Arizona is the clear and obvious frontrunner in the Colorado Springs regionals is definitely overstating their performance this year, especially when compared to Fresno.
          Last edited by Overrated?; January 25th, 2019, 04:21 PM.

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          • #6
            I'm not sure why this debate is happening. They're both very good teams who are probably going to ORCS and maybe even Nationals. Who's better between the two doesn't really matter

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            • #7
              This shit is comical Overrated? , Fresno should be lucky to be considered a first in team. Also Arizona is very deep, their B team is the one that qualified out of ORCS, and I think whenever a team goes 8-0, 8-0 at a regional I think they are just pretty much always going to be the team to beat back there. Im actually just stunned that of all the things to be skeptical of this is the first thing that has been critiqued of MAIMD's analysis. DefenseMid can you please make your own analysis, I cried reading that, you are a blessing.

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              • #8
                This debate is happening because thats the point of this forum and MAIMD - to inspire debate. And the debate is interesting. Arizona is a much stronger program (and has historically been so) and while Fresno State's depth is remarkable, Arizona should be the stronger program. That being said, Overrated? has a point; this year has been a seeming down year for Arizona (at least as invitationals are concerned).

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                • #9
                  I'd be cautious of ascribing too much weight to individual awards when assessing a program's strength. If there's a solid program with good talent across their whole team, it's harder for any member to win an award. Good attorneys/witnesses on the same team snipe ranks from each other all the time. Likewise, a bench with one much more experienced competitor lends itself to attorney awards. I'm not saying that's the case here, just that it's hard to extrapolate program talent from individual awards.

                  Also, it's difficult to compare how these programs did at different invitationals. UCSB's field is very different than Black Squirrel's field. Plus, we don't know which team went. Was it Arizona's A team that went to both GAMTI and Black Squirrel? Did they send an A team to one and a B to the other? Is Fresno stacked or split stacked? Fresno fielded six teams last year and Arizona fielded five... that's a lot of teams. Who knows if an "A" team at any tournament is really an A team?

                  Anyways, they're both clearly the two dominant programs going into Colorado Springs. They'll both almost definitely get a bid. I don't want to diss on either team, I think they'll both do well and this whole discussion just highlights that they're heavy hitters.

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                  • #10
                    Freezing Cold Takes. All of these.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by DefenseMid View Post

                      This is Mock Analysis, after all - they might have used some complicated statistical measurements. For example:

                      NTSSTRZO (Number of Times Sending Six Teams to Regionals and Zero to ORCS)

                      NGA (Number of GAMTIs Attended)

                      ITPARLTOBT? (Is This Program's A Team Ranked Lower Than the Other's B Team?)
                      Fresno Arizona
                      NTSSTRZO 1 0
                      NGA 2018 0 1
                      ITPARLTOBT Yes No

                      Arizona might be overrated, but Fresno is correctly rated as not good.
                      Your "lukewarm takes only" bio line is obviously a lie. This homicide of a take is zestier than a hot ones sauce.

                      Reported.

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                      • #12
                        randy While obviously individual awards don't tell the whole story, I do think that it gives us insight into the strength of a program. This year, Arizona hasn't had very many consistent award winners, with no one receiving more than one. In the case of multiple members "sniping" each other's ranks, you'd also expect that team to have a strong team record. However, this just isn't the case with Arizona- they haven't received many individual awards and haven't had very many positive records (the only positive records being at the Gunslinger Invitational). As such, I find it hard to believe that the lack of individual awards from Arizona is due to the strength of their competitors "sniping" each other as opposed to Arizona just not being particularly good this year, especially when compared to a team like Fresno.

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                        • #13
                          Overrated? You're really still going at this, huh

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                          • #14
                            @Overrated first semester invitationals are still not a good judge of regional performance, especially given the fact that both teams went, for the most part, to very different invitationals. Going 3-5 at Black Squirrel (after hitting NYU, Michigan, Haverford, and Northwestern) and 5-6-1 at GAMTI (against UVA, Georgia Tech, Duke, and Miami) is impressive despite being a losing record. That's basically hitting a list of top national contenders. Fresno didn't compete at these tournaments, and it's silly to compare such different invitational fields as if they were the same.

                            Also, the U of A went 3-1 and 2-2 at Irvine (so they weren't just positive at their own tournament) while Fresno went 1-3 and 1-3. So at Irvine and gunslinger -- the only two tournaments they both competed at -- their records are comparable.

                            To your point about invitational awards and sniping: l'd actually say that having different individuals win awards instead of the same competitors indicates that sniping is occurring. If the same individual wins awards repeatedly, they probably consistently score above their bench mates. On the other hand, different people winning awards each time suggests skill parity and more competition among their team.

                            Look, my point is the same. First semester invitationals should be taken with a grain of salt, especially given the different invitationals and lack of info we have. Both Fresno and Arizona are good teams. To pit them against each other like this is silly.
                            Last edited by randy; January 28th, 2019, 07:44 PM.

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                            • #15
                              randy Lol it was never my intention to pit the two teams against each other; I was just curious as to why Arizona seemed to be considered a vastly superior team compared to Fresno. I've never competed against Arizona before, but from my rounds against Fresno, I've come away very impressed by their performance. I made this comment simply because I was curious as to the reasoning of putting Arizona above Fresno when invitational results and individual awards seem to indicate that at the very least, the two are of similar skill.

                              It was never my intention to say that one is clearly better than the other or to "pit" them against each other. I was just hoping to spark actual discussion considering the data from this year about the relative skill levels of both teams, but so far the only responses I've received have used past seasons results to refute my questions. In response to your discussion on individual awards, I would tend to disagree that having different individuals is completely indicative of sniping. In fact, it could simply be that lack of consistency among members results in different people doing well at different times. Strong competitors will consistently receive awards, as noted by MTAIMD with their "Pre-Regionals Top Performers 2018-2019" post.

                              Whether or not Arizona is better than Fresno is to be determined, but I do think that Arizona isn't nearly as good as TPR or MTAIMD may indicate. Clearly in past years Arizona has been a very strong force, but this year the results are disappointing, and considering I haven't been able to compete against them, those metrics are the only ones I can use to base my conclusions on. There's almost no doubt that Arizona will make it out of regionals, but I do wonder if they'll have similar success as they have in recent years.

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