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Regionals Analysis: Week 3

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  • #16
    Overrated? So to be clear, you haven't seen Arizona this year, yet you're going online and talking trash about them?

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    • #17
      Question: when the teams in the Bubble are listed, are they done so in any particular order? In other words, would a team placed above another be considered rated higher than one listed below it?

      MockAnalysisIsMyDrug It would be nice to know if MAIMD is intentional about the order in which it lists the schools, or if they are listed in no particular order. The answer to this question may cause me to view some of the analysis differently.

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      • #18
        bdopl, it is done in no particular order. Our analysis groups them into either "teams we expect to break" aka. "first in" or "teams we think have a shot under the right circumstances" aka. "bubble". There isn't supposed to be a difference within the first in teams order or the bubble order.

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        • #19
          MockAnalysisIsMyDrug thanks for clearing that up for me!

          Iím also curious to see how accurate these predictions are year over year. Obviously, the analysis will never be a perfect predictor of success, and no one expects it to be, given all the moving variables involved in mock trial. But Iíd be interested to know, for example, the rate in which regionals predictions pan out compared to ORCS. I would imagine ORCS has a higher degree of unpredictability because of the smaller skill difference between teams, but regionals has a higher chance of producing true dark horse candidates, simply due to the lack of information available on them (i.e. new programs, programs who didnít compete at invitationals, and programs who may add new good mockers in January).

          Also, I donít know if this analysis already exists, so it might be be something I look at, if it does not.

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          • #20
            Originally posted by Overrated? View Post
            Curious as to why Arizona is the team to beat over Fresno at Colorado Springs? Looking at the tab summaries of different invitationals, it seems like Fresno has had far more success this year than Arizona. I'm pretty sure Tanner Morgan and Micaela Cisneros together have won more awards than Arizona as a whole this year. It seems pretty clear to me that Arizona is vastly overrated this year, especially since they had so many people from their 2018 Nats team graduate, with no one filling the shoes of the big names they lost (Trevisani, Rounseville, etc.). Admittedly, I'm not too familiar with Arizona as a program, but I haven't heard of any up-and-coming mockers from Arizona this year.
            If you are on our team, I'd suggest you stop commenting, and reconsider what you think you're doing for our team by anonymously posting things like this.

            To Arizona, you all make up a great program, and we wish you the best of luck at regionals. Hopefully another scrimmage before the NCT is in store for us this year!

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            • #21
              Originally posted by bdopl View Post
              MockAnalysisIsMyDrug thanks for clearing that up for me!

              Iím also curious to see how accurate these predictions are year over year. Obviously, the analysis will never be a perfect predictor of success, and no one expects it to be, given all the moving variables involved in mock trial. But Iíd be interested to know, for example, the rate in which regionals predictions pan out compared to ORCS. I would imagine ORCS has a higher degree of unpredictability because of the smaller skill difference between teams, but regionals has a higher chance of producing true dark horse candidates, simply due to the lack of information available on them (i.e. new programs, programs who didnít compete at invitationals, and programs who may add new good mockers in January).

              Also, I donít know if this analysis already exists, so it might be be something I look at, if it does not.
              This analysis does not exist, looks like you have an opportunity to make your own. When I have tried my hand (without publishing to Perjuries or anywhere else) at predicting the teams that will break from regionals, I usually only get 4/5 of 7 correct. Theres just too many B and C teams I don't know about, and too much random chance.

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              • #22
                The total review of the whole 2017-2018 Analysis was at the bottom of our Pre-Nationals Analysis (https://perjuries.com/forum/mock-tri...ament-analysis). Additionally, we reported (as a comment on the original post) for each of the analysis we did, which of our predictions were right and which were not. For example on Week 4 last year: we had 8 "first in" teams, that didn't make it out, and we had 12 teams we didn't expect to make it that did. (https://perjuries.com/forum/mock-tri...houghts-week-4) See the third post down. As always we don't pretend to be perfect, we just do the best we can with what information is readily available. We also preface all our posts with this: "Remember, please share your own thoughts below. This is meant to start a discussion, if you have seen a team and you think we are over or under valuing them, let us know! Good luck with regionals! If you aren't on here, then prove us wrong! If you made our list, then prove us right! - MockAnalysisIsMyDrug"
                Last edited by MockAnalysisIsMyDrug; January 30th, 2019, 10:24 PM.

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                • #23
                  Not to get sidetracked from the west coast school pettiness, but I'd like to actually get into some week 3 regionals analysis...



                  I think the Houston Regional will be kind of fun/tricky to predict. It's a first-time host, who knows what the judge pool will look like, let alone not knowing much about the geographical preferences and that like 14 of those teams are around the same caliber. I'm not sold on Rice A as the team to watch. I would have arguably placed Alabama B in that spot, partially because they finished with the same record as their A team at ORCs last year and partially because they have been in striking distance this year at some tournaments to place. St. Thomas seems to have quite a bit of success in Texas the past three years in Dallas, Texas is usually a lock to at least make it out of regionals (sad that they don't make it to nationals anymore, anyone have an idea if they lost a coach or something?), and the Baylor teams usually do well within their state. Overall, that should be a fun tab summary to read come round 3. Also, shoutout to Dillard A for making ORCs last year, I'm rooting for them to have another strong showing in Houston after winning the Rice tournament all the way back in October.


                  Louisville seems to be pretty similar to Houston, insofar as there are a bunch of mid-level ORCs teams that will battle each other for the last couple of bids once Rhodes and Chattanooga run away from the pack. Also, MTSU, Tennessee, and Miami seem like they'll all be good for bids if everything goes right. This seems wrong given their success earlier in the decade, but the team to watch at this tournament should be Vanderbilt A, given their program whiffed at regionals last year.


                  The Seattle, Minneapolis, and Colorado Springs Regionals should be a snooze fest, not much to watch here. Buffalo is small enough of a regional to get kind of weird pairing-wise in round 3.


                  The Owings Mills Regional is kind of the sexy pick to be the most competitive tournament in this weekend (and it should be fun), but I'm actually going with Orlando for my pick. Florida seems to have taken the next leap in their growth as a program where they routinely run two nationals level teams--even more than that, they have been in striking distance of a final round a couple times now. Central Florida's infrastructure is impressive and they're usually pretty competitive, getting one of the last bids last year (oh, and the whole home-field advantage thing). I'm a little sad that Florida State A and Georgia won't be at this one, it would've made it even better. Florida International seems to be growing and would be my team to watch, coupled with some B and C teams from national stalwarts Furman and Georgia Tech.

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                  • #24
                    I'd agree that Minneapolis doesn't have a ton going on (I suspect the usual suspects will make it out), but there are a few story lines to look out for:

                    First, there is the possibility of a U Chicago Macalester rematch after the big round 3 at last year's Geneva ORCS, where Mac took a ballot off U Chicago A that left them without a bid to nationals. There was some fun meme page drama after that, but suffice to say that could be a really fun, possibly wild round if it happens again, with both teams trying to see if that round was a fluke.

                    Second, the opening up of the eighth bid out opens up a bit of room in the middle of the field that could put a new or unexpected team an ORCS bid. This could go one of two ways. Either it could go to the b team of one of the established programs who get a lucky schedule (possibly Mac, Carleton, or Hamline) which has happened (Carleton B at Cedar rapids in 2016, Northwestern C(?) in 2017, Mac B at St. Paul in 2018) or it could go to one of the teams who are constantly floating around a 4-4 record (such as University of St. Thomas or Luther College). My bet would be on either St. Olaf College (who was a perennial almost ORCS team for a few years back in ~2015, had a few rebuilding seasons but has generally had a good invitational season (including an honorable mention at the St. Paul trials which is basically the same tournament as this regional)) or possibly University of Minnesota Duluth (who has never been to ORCS but has done really well against the mid/lower tier of competition at St. Thomas' and UW Superior's tournament).

                    Third, there is the open question of who will win SPAMTA (Minnesota nice after all). The University of Minnesota and Carleton College have both won multiple SPAMTAs during the invitational season so we'll see what happens there.

                    Finally, with Cedar Rapids existing it will be interesting to see how that ORCS goes since this combination of teams is super different from Geneva or Memphis so it will be interesting to see if any new nationals teams come out of it (I think Cornell College could go back to nationals this year).

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                    • #25
                      Cornell college is always really solid. I've seen them this year and they look really good. Wouldn't be surprised to see them back at Nats.

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                      • #26
                        Iím wondering why FSU B isnít in the bubble in Orlando. From what I can gather, FSU seems to be doing a great job of building up their program again. The latest information we have was of their B team going 6-2 and coming second at their own tournament. They also went to UFís invitational and were the only non-UF team to place. These two recent results seem to indicate to me that deserve at least a mention in the ďbubbleĒ conversation, and that they will, at the very least, be competitive that this regional.

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                        • #27
                          Orlando is going to have one or two regulars not place out. Looks hard this year.

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                          • #28
                            Going into the last weekend of regionals, I think we should reconsider the difficulty of some of these tournaments based on which teams still need their first (or second) bid. With 2 weekends already in the books, maybe some teams are slightly more relaxed knowing that their program will have 2 teams at ORCs and their bids they may earn this weekend are just going to the open bid list.

                            Borrowing from the therealmockprodigy in the Open Bid Watch forum here's the list he posted:


                            Buffalo: 1 potential new open bid

                            Colorado Springs: 2 potential new open bids

                            Fresno: 4 potential new open bids

                            Houston: 0 potential new open bids

                            Louisville: 3 potential new open bids

                            Minneapolis: 2 potential new open bids

                            Orlando: 7 potential new open bids

                            Owings Mills: 3 potential new open bids

                            Princeton: 1 potential new open bid

                            Seattle: 5 potential new open bids

                            Washington DC: 4 potential new open bids



                            Looking at this list now makes me think that Houston, Buffalo, and Owing Mills will be the Regionals to keep an eye on this weekend. Most of those schools will be fighting to continue their seasons.


                            Orlando may not be as exciting as predicted, mostly because the top programs have already taken care of business.

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                            • #29
                              Wholeheartedly disagree with the conclusion that it may not be as interesting, and would argue it might be even more unpredictable and perhaps even more difficult. Scenario A: a top team has already secured 1 or 2 bids, but has a program-wide policy that the teams that get the bid, go to ORCS (letís say FSU B doesnít get a bid, and their policy is to let C go to ORCS completely in tact, over B). In this scenario, a top team would have perhaps even more motivation to secure a bid, because they are competing directly with the people they know from their own program. Their performance can affect their reputation and what team they might be placed on next year, etc. Scenario B: a top team re-stacks for ORCS every year, based on merit, to pull together the 1 or 2 best possible teams. Why would the people on top teams care less in this situation? They wouldnít. A strong showing would help solidify their place in the ORCS teams. Doing poorly at regionals might actually cause some of those members to be dropped in preference for great performers of lower teams.

                              Even if I grant the premise that some of these top teams will ďrelaxĒ knowing theyíve won bids already, that would seem to make a tournament like Orlando even MORE interesting because some smaller-named programs might come out of nowehere in a regional that already has 12-15 teams with realistic shots at qualifying. And to clarify, I donít think there is evidence of programs with already qualified teams, letting up. Some great examples that shows an opposite correlation are Duke and Georgia. Both qualified 2 teams the first weekend and both qualified one and two more teams the next weekend.

                              I am aware that the evidence Iíve provided is merely anecdotal, but I am simply challenging the notion that it is *prima facie* that regionals with several programs with earned bids will be less interesting. It doesnít seem like that is the case. Especially in the case of Orlando, where the teams left to compete are, for the most part, A and B teams.

                              If we are reconsidering difficulty, I donít think tournaments like Fresno, Seattle, DC, and Orlando will automatically be any less difficult because some of the programsí teams already got bids. I think it only adds stakes, rather than lower the stakes, in the majority of cases.
                              Last edited by bdopl; February 20th, 2019, 01:32 PM.

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                              • #30
                                Originally posted by bdopl View Post
                                Wholeheartedly disagree with the conclusion that it may not be as interesting, and would argue it might be even more unpredictable and perhaps even more difficult. Scenario A: a top team has already secured 1 or 2 bids, but has a program-wide policy that the teams that get the bid, go to ORCS (letís say FSU B doesnít get a bid, and their policy is to let C go to ORCS completely in tact, over B). In this scenario, a top team would have perhaps even more motivation to secure a bid, because they are competing directly with the people they know from their own program. Their performance can affect their reputation and what team they might be placed on next year, etc. Scenario B: a top team re-stacks for ORCS every year, based on merit, to pull together the 1 or 2 best possible teams. Why would the people on top teams care less in this situation? They wouldnít. A strong showing would help solidify their place in the ORCS teams. Doing poorly at regionals might actually cause some of those members to be dropped in preference for great performers of lower teams.

                                Even if I grant the premise that some of these top teams will ďrelaxĒ knowing theyíve won bids already, that would seem to make a tournament like Orlando even MORE interesting because some smaller-named programs might come out of nowehere in a regional that already has 12-15 teams with realistic shots at qualifying. And to clarify, I donít think there is evidence of programs with already qualified teams, letting up. Some great examples that shows an opposite correlation are Duke and Georgia. Both qualified 2 teams the first weekend and both qualified one and two more teams the next weekend.

                                I am aware that the evidence Iíve provided is merely anecdotal, but I am simply challenging the notion that it is *prima facie* that regionals with several programs with earned bids will be less interesting. It doesnít seem like that is the case. Especially in the case of Orlando, where the teams left to compete are, for the most part, A and B teams.

                                If we are reconsidering difficulty, I donít think tournaments like Fresno, Seattle, DC, and Orlando will automatically be any less difficult because some of the program's teams already got bids. I think it only adds stakes, rather than lower the stakes, in the majority of cases.
                                That's a good point! I definitely did not account for some of the scenarios you outlined above. However, I still think there's a huge difference between the pressure of your program's season ending after Regionals and the pressure of maybe a few people getting left off of an ORCs roster when the program reshuffles.

                                I've always been of the persuasion that roster decision-makers don't weigh regionals performances as much as performances at some of the better invitationals, or at least that's what I've always preferred. I could see how a student-run team or a team with a hardline rule in their constitution that the team that qualifies gets the bid could be stressin this weekend though!

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