In previous years, around January 31st, an eighth bid has been awarded to the 3 largest regionals: New Haven, Stevenson/Owings Mills, and St. Paul. These tournaments normally have more than 28 teams in attendance so it makes sense to give them an eight bid to ORCS.

No eighth bid has been awarded yet this year and I wonder if it will at all. Just for some perspective:

Currently Topeka has 19, Colorado Springs has 20, and there are a bunch of regions with 21. Similarly, Minneapolis has 32, Claremont has 31, Owings Mills has 30, Orlando has 30, and New Haven has 28.

While Mock Analysis has already done their analysis and clearly there are advantages and disadvantages of being in a larger regional. It does seem a little silly on paper to have Minneapolis and Topeka give out the same number of bids. If Mock were completely random and rounds were determined by flipping a coin. Your chance of breaking Minneapolis is about 21.8%, compared to 36.8% in Topeka.

If extra bids are given out, then where is the line drawn? While I stopped at New Haven, there is a regional that has 27 teams this year (Houston). If they aren't given an extra bid but New Haven does, there is a new issue where the chance of breaking from New Haven (with an eighth bid) is 28.5%, and breaking from Houston (with only seven bids) would be 25.9%. Moreover, if a team who typically does 2-6 or worse drops out of New Haven, it doesn't really change many people's chances of getting out of that regional, but then if they lose their bid it certainly does change things.

This also goes to the issue of open bids. If we give 5 extra bids to those 5 largest regionals, then the number of Open Bids that will be given out overall will be greatly diminished.

This is a tough issue that I don't really have an answer to. Just wanted to start the discussion!

No eighth bid has been awarded yet this year and I wonder if it will at all. Just for some perspective:

Currently Topeka has 19, Colorado Springs has 20, and there are a bunch of regions with 21. Similarly, Minneapolis has 32, Claremont has 31, Owings Mills has 30, Orlando has 30, and New Haven has 28.

While Mock Analysis has already done their analysis and clearly there are advantages and disadvantages of being in a larger regional. It does seem a little silly on paper to have Minneapolis and Topeka give out the same number of bids. If Mock were completely random and rounds were determined by flipping a coin. Your chance of breaking Minneapolis is about 21.8%, compared to 36.8% in Topeka.

If extra bids are given out, then where is the line drawn? While I stopped at New Haven, there is a regional that has 27 teams this year (Houston). If they aren't given an extra bid but New Haven does, there is a new issue where the chance of breaking from New Haven (with an eighth bid) is 28.5%, and breaking from Houston (with only seven bids) would be 25.9%. Moreover, if a team who typically does 2-6 or worse drops out of New Haven, it doesn't really change many people's chances of getting out of that regional, but then if they lose their bid it certainly does change things.

This also goes to the issue of open bids. If we give 5 extra bids to those 5 largest regionals, then the number of Open Bids that will be given out overall will be greatly diminished.

This is a tough issue that I don't really have an answer to. Just wanted to start the discussion!

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