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7+ Wins at Regionals

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  • 7+ Wins at Regionals

    Below, I’ve listed the top-performing teams at Regionals this year. For all intents and purposes, the teams are ranked as if Regionals was 1 giant, 700-team competition, and the list is the standings with the final results.

    The order of the list is just for fun. What I find more important about this list is the cutoff – 7 wins. In the last 5 years, 8 out of the 10 teams competing in the NCT final round had at least 7 wins at Regionals (9 out of the 10 had at least 6.5), and all 5 of those National Champions picked up at least 7 wins at Regionals. Obviously, that does not mean it is impossible to make or win the NCT final round if your team did not have 7+ wins, but I find that performance at Regionals is a good indicator of what could happen at Nationals. The best teams should be taking care of the weaker teams, and teams that have to struggle to get 5 or 5.5 wins against Regionals competition would likely have a much tougher time earning that same amount of wins at Nationals. The reason that this page is about 7+ wins instead of an 8-0 Regionals record is because I believe it is fair to give 1 ballot of breathing room to take into account a faulty judge or a tough round with another good team at the same regional that resulted in a split.

    In addition, I’ve put programs with multiple teams with 7+ wins together in the rankings at the point where the better-performing team would have been placed alone had they been the only team from that program to earn 7+ Regionals ballots. Teams can have a lot of internal change between Regionals and Nationals, so I find it more helpful to look at programs as a whole in a list like this rather than individual teams.

    Here are the teams with 7+ wins at Regionals in 2019:

    1. Virginia A, 8 Wins (CS: 18, OCS: 76, PD: 103)
    2. Harvard A, 8 Wins (CS: 18, OCS: 73, PD: 152)
    3. Alabama A, 8 Wins (CS: 18, OCS: 65, PD: 108)
    4. Florida State A/Florida State B, 8 Wins (CS: 17, OCS: 75, PD: 90)/7 Wins (CS: 18.5, OCS: 69.5, PD: 52)
    5. Yale B, 8 Wins (CS: 16.5, OCS: 79.5, PD: 76)
    6. UC Santa Barbara A, 8 Wins (CS: 15.5, OCS: 74.5, PD: 103)
    7. Liberty A, 8 Wins (CS: 15, OCS: 81.5, PD: 62)
    8. Northwestern A/Northwestern B, 8 Wins (CS: 15, OCS: 80, PD: 106)/7 Wins (CS: 10.5, OCS: 76.5, PD: 86)
    9. NYU A, 8 Wins (CS: 15, OCS: 75.5, PD: 159)
    10. Penn State D/Penn State A, 8 Wins (CS: 15, OCS: 69.5, PD: 91)/7 Wins (CS: 17, OCS: 70, PD: 62)
    11. Miami A, 8 Wins (CS: 14.5, OCS: 73, PD: 116)
    12. Vanderbilt A, 8 Wins (CS: 14, OCS: 81.5, PD: 81)
    13. Georgia Tech A, 8 Wins (CS: 14, OCS: 76, PD: 91)
    14. Arizona State B, 8 Wins (CS: 14, OCS: 70, PD: 125)
    15. Minnesota A, 8 Wins (CS: 12.5, OCS: 80, PD: 55)
    16. Indiana A, 8 Wins (CS: 12.5, OCS: 73, PD: 89)
    17. Rutgers A, 8 Wins (CS: 11, OCS: 73.5, PD: 140)
    18. Brown B, 8 Wins (CS: 10.5, OCS: 71.5, PD: 96)
    19. Boston College A, 8 Wins (CS: 10, OCS: 71, PD: 61)
    20. Michigan A/Michigan C, 7.5 Wins (CS: 17, OCS: 79.5, PD: 71)/7 Wins (CS: 11, OCS: 69, PD: 147)
    21. UMBC A, 7.5 Wins (CS: 15.5, OCS: 69, PD: 81)
    22. Georgetown A, 7.5 Wins (CS: 14.5, OCS: 72.5, PD: 54)
    23. University of Illinois-Chicago A, 7.5 Wins (CS: 14, OCS: 77.5, PD: 83)
    24. Baylor B/Baylor A, 7.5 Wins (CS: 12.5, OCS: 73.5, PD: 121)/7 Wins (CS: 15, OCS: 74, PD: 89)
    25. Cornell College A, 7.5 Wins (CS: 8.5, OCS: 80, PD: 68)
    26. Gonzaga A, 7 Wins (CS: 21.5, OCS: 64, PD: 54)
    27. Oregon A/Oregon B, 7 Wins (CS: 19.5, OCS: 76.5, PD: 46)/7 Wins (CS: 15, OCS: 70.5, PD: 19)
    28. Wheaton A, 7 Wins (CS: 19, OCS: 67, PD: 58)
    29. Air Force A, 7 Wins (CS: 18, OCS: 75.5, PD: 41)
    30. Richmond A, 7 Wins (CS: 18, OCS: 65, PD: 54)
    31. Emory A/Emory C, 7 Wins (CS: 17.5, OCS: 74.5, PD: 115)/7 Wins (CS: 12, OCS: 67.5, PD: 119)
    32. Arizona A, 7 Wins (CS: 17.5, OCS: 69, PD: 134)
    33. Cincinnati B/Cincinnati A, 7 Wins (CS: 17, OCS: 69, PD: 56)/7 Wins (CS: 13, OCS: 69.5, PD: 81)
    34. Eastern Michigan A, 7 Wins (CS: 17, OCS: 67, PD: 57)
    35. Bowdoin A, 7 Wins (CS: 17, OCS: 64, PD: 67)
    36. Florida A, 7 Wins (CS: 16.5, OCS: 71, PD: 86)
    37. Michigan State A, 7 Wins (CS: 16, OCS: 75, PD: 47)
    38. Rhodes A/Rhodes B, 7 Wins (CS: 16, OCS: 73, PD: 80)/7 Wins (CS: 14.5, OCS: 78, PD: 84)
    39. Chicago A, 7 Wins (CS: 16, OCS: 62, PD: 94)
    40. Cornell University A, 7 Wins (CS: 15.5, OCS: 80.5, PD: 59)
    41. North Central College A, 7 Wins (CS: 15.5, OCS: 69, PD: 64)
    42. William & Mary A, 7 Wins (CS: 15, OCS: 74.5, PD: 67)
    43. UMass Lowell A, 7 Wins (CS: 15, OCS: 73.5, PD: 55)
    44. Stanford B, 7 Wins (CS: 15, OCS: 68, PD: 62)
    45. Georgia B, 7 Wins (CS: 15, OCS: 67.5, PD: 111)
    46. Creighton A, 7 Wins (CS: 15, OCS: 67, PD: 66)
    47. UC Irvine A, 7 Wins (CS: 14.5, OCS: 81, PD: 77)
    48. UC Berkley A/UC Berkley B, 7 Wins (CS: 14, OCS: 75.5, PD: 72)/ 7 Wins (CS: 14, OCS: 68, PD: 94)
    49. UL Monroe A, 7 Wins (CS: 14, OCS: 74, PD: 37)
    50. Iowa A, 7 Wins (CS: 14, OCS: 72, PD: 68)
    51. USC B, 7 Wins (CS: 13.5, OCS: 86.5, PD: 61)
    52. Ohio State A/Ohio State B, 7 Wins (CS: 13.5, OCS: 76, PD: 154)/7 Wins (CS: 13, OCS: 77, PD: 161)
    53. Tufts A, 7 Wins (CS: 13.5, OCS: 74.5, PD: 128)
    54. Illinois (Urbana-Champaign) B, 7 Wins (CS: 13, OCS: 77.5, PD: 64)
    55. Wesleyan B, 7 Wins (CS: 13, OCS: 74, PD: 83)
    56. Columbia B, 7 Wins (CS: 12.5, OCS: 83, PD: 121)
    57. UT Chattanooga A, 7 Wins (CS: 12, OCS: 76.5, PD: 77)
    58. UCLA A, 7 Wins (CS: 11, OCS: 69, PD: 90)

    I personally was surprised by the lack of “shockers” in this list, especially with all of the talk of how “crazy” Regionals has been this year. 7 of the top 10 programs on this list went to Nationals last year, and 9 of the top 10 have been to the NCT at least once in the last three years. Of all of the 58 programs on this list, only 1 team comes from a completely unranked program (congratulations, Liberty.) 22 of the top 23 programs in terms of 2018-19 TPR make an appearance on this list; the only program of those that missed (Howard) had a team that was only 2 points away on a ballot from a 7-1 Regionals record.

    Other stats:
    Programs with at least two 7+ win teams: 11
    Programs with at least three 7+ win teams: 0
    Programs with 15 wins between best 2 teams: 3 (Florida State, Northwestern, Penn State)
    B teams with 8 wins: 3 (Yale, Arizona State, Brown)
    C teams with 8 wins: 0
    D teams with 8 wins: 1 (Penn State)
    C teams with 7+ wins: 2 (Emory, Michigan)
    D teams with 7+ wins: 1 (Penn State)
    E/F teams with 7+ wins: 0 (Sorry, Fresno State. Having an F team earn a 4-4 record is still extremely impressive.)
    Highest CS of 7+ win teams: 21.5 (Gonzaga A)
    Highest PD of 8-win teams: 159 (NYU A)
    Highest PD of 7+ win teams: 161 (Ohio State B)
    Highest Combined PD of programs with two 7+ win teams: 315 (Ohio State)
    Lowest PD of 8-win teams: 55 (Minnesota A)
    Lowest PD of 7+ win teams: 19 (Oregon B)

  • #2
    Great list. Looking at the list of programs with two 7+ win teams is interesting:

    Florida State
    Northwestern
    Penn State
    Michigan
    Baylor
    Oregon
    Emory
    Cincinnati
    Rhodes
    Cal
    Ohio State

    Comment


    • #3
      I think an interesting project would be to figure out how many teams of various win types will be appearing at each ORCs location. Hopefully there's someone around that has a lot of time to kill.

      Comment


      • #4
        I sort of did this in a rush, so my bad if I got any of these numbers or assignments wrong. I decided to throw in the 7+ win teams' average TPR for each tournament, but some are skewed upwards due to great runs at regionals by programs with deep teams that aren't necessarily ranked very high. But based on what AMTA has as the currently set ORCS, here is that analysis MockingTheMidwest was wondering about:

        Cedar Rapids, Iowa
        1. Indiana A, 8 wins
        2. Cornell College A, 7.5 wins
        3. Creighton A, 7 wins
        4. Chicago A, 7 wins
        5. Minnesota A, 8 wins
        6. Iowa A, 7 wins
        7. Northwestern A, 8 wins
        8. Northwestern B, 7 wins

        Average TPR of above teams: 72.38

        Central Islip, NY
        1. NYU A, 8 wins
        2. Cornell Univ. A, 8 wins
        3. Wesleyan B, 7 wins
        4. Rutgers A, 8 wins
        5. Columbia B, 7 wins
        6. Richmond A, 7 wins

        Average TPR of above teams: 57.33

        Geneva, Illinois
        1. Wheaton A, 7 wins
        2. Arizona A, 7 wins
        3. Air Force A, 7 wins
        4. Cincinnati A, 7 wins
        5. Cincinnati B, 7 wins
        6. North Central A, 7 wins
        7. Stanford B, 7 wins
        8. Ohio State A, 7 wins
        9. Ohio State B, 7 wins

        Average TPR of above teams: 100.67

        Santa Monica, CA
        1. Arizona State B, 8 wins
        2. UC Berkeley A, 7 wins
        3. UC Berkeley B, 7 wins
        4. Oregon A, 7 wins
        5. Oregon B, 7 wins
        6. USC B, 7 wins
        7. UC Santa Barbara A, 8 wins
        8. UCLA, 7 wins
        9. Gonzaga A, 7 wins
        10. UC Irvine A, 7 wins

        Average TPR of above teams: 95

        Chestnut Hill, MA
        1. Tufts A, 7 wins
        2. Yale B, 8 wins
        3. UMass Lowell A, 7 wins
        4. Brown B, 8 wins
        5. Bowdoin A, 7 wins
        6. Harvard A, 8 wins
        7. Boston College A, 8 wins

        Average TPR of above teams: 90.57

        Decatur, GA
        1. Florida A, 7 wins
        2. Georgia Tech A, 8 wins
        3. Florida State A, 8 wins
        4. Florida State B, 7 wins
        5. Emory A, 7 wins

        Average TPR of above teams: 74.8

        Hamilton, OH
        1. Michigan State A, 7 wins
        2. Illinois-Chicago A, 7.5 wins
        3. Miami A, 8 wins
        4. Michigan A, 7.5 wins
        5. Penn State A, 7 wins
        6. Eastern Michigan A, 7 wins

        Average TPR of above teams: 75.83

        Memphis, TN
        1. Alabama A, 8 wins
        2. Rhodes A, 7 wins
        3. Rhodes B, 7 wins
        4. Vanderbilt A, 8 wins
        5. Georgia B, 7 wins
        6. Baylor A, 7 wins
        7. Baylor B, 7.5 wins
        8. UT Chat. A, 7 wins

        Average TPR of above teams: 73.88

        Richmond, VA
        1. William and Mary A, 7 wins
        2. Georgetown A, 7.5 wins
        3. Virginia A, 8 wins
        4. UMBC A, 7.5 wins
        5. Liberty A, 8 wins

        Average TPR of above teams: 56.75

        Comment


        • #5
          Reviewing the current list of ORCS, Geneva, Cedar Rapids, and Santa Monica look brutal. Especially Santa Monica: 10 teams with at least 7 wins from Regionals is a huge amount.

          Comment


          • #6
            Do we have any stats on 7+ bid teams from regionals 2018 with a comparison on how they did in ORCS? Indicating power teams based on regional records alone feels faulty, and for a reason -- the vast majority of ballots won by teams who advance are against teams that don't (and often times, against teams that finish with records below 4-4, whose losses are clearly explained by more than just one or two errant judges). In addition to the fact that it is mathematically impossible for all of these 58 teams to post records this high (or even above 5-3, it's extraordinarily unlikely), it doesnt make a ton of sense to me to call out "power teams when exactly one team on this list has a CS of 20. This means that the nearly every team in the above "power" stats had at least 2 or more rounds against teams that did not advance.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by dcphlmock View Post
              Do we have any stats on 7+ bid teams from regionals 2018 with a comparison on how they did in ORCS?.
              Once ORCS wrap up this year, I'll calculate what percentage of these teams made it to Nationals, and what percentage of Nationals teams earned 7+ bids at their Regionals. I'll also come up with a few other statistics related to Regionals CS and PD and how those numbers related to earning a Nationals bid. I have a hunch that PD will be a fairly good indicator.

              This method isn't a perfect science, but I believe teams who take care of business at Regionals are more likely to take care of business at ORCS. You mentioned that many of these teams hit at least 2 teams that didn't even make it out of their respective Regional - a lot of the 5-win bid getters hit those teams too, and they often struggled, split, or even dropped both ballots. I simply find that this method is a good way of noting which ORCS teams could easily handle Regionals competition, so should be more prepared for ORCS competition than those that couldn't handle Regionals competition. - not to a precise degree, but in a general sense.

              As to it's 2018 reliability, while I don't have every team's Regionals wins, I can tell you that out of the 9 programs that at least 1 team earn an 8-4 or better record at Nationals last year, 7 of them had at least 1 team with at least 7 wins at Regionals.

              Comment

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