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  • MockAnalysisIsMyDrug
    replied
    ORCS Week 1 Review

    Summary
    Most predictable tournament - Cedar Rapids
    Most surprising tournament - Central Islip
    Most surprising team result - NYU A

    Unpredicted Teams
    Wesleyan B
    Cornell B
    Ohio State B
    Stanford B
    UCLA B
    UC Davis A

    Predicted Teams Out
    Indiana A
    NYU A
    Stanford A
    UC Irvine A

    Current Open Bid List
    1. St. Thomas (MN)
    2. UC Santa Barbara
    3. Stanford A



    Cedar Rapids
    Minnesota A*
    Chicago A
    Cornell College A*
    Northwestern B*
    Northwestern A

    *In from Predicted "Bubble"
    **Unpredicted In

    Out from "First In" Prediction
    Indiana A

    Central Islip
    Wesleyan B**
    Cornell A
    Columbia A*
    Cornell B**
    Fordham LC A*

    *In from Predicted "Bubble"
    **Unpredicted In

    Out from "First In" Prediction
    NYU A

    Geneva
    Ohio State B**
    Ohio State A
    Cincinnati A*
    Northwood A*
    Stanford B**

    *In from Predicted "Bubble"
    **Unpredicted In

    Out from "First In" Prediction
    Stanford A

    Santa Monica
    UCLA A
    UC Berkeley A
    UCLA B**
    UC Davis A**
    UC San Diego A*

    *In from Predicted "Bubble"
    **Unpredicted In

    Out from "First In" Prediction
    UC Irvine A

    Leave a comment:


  • Gronksmash
    replied
    Originally posted by WitnessTheAttorney View Post

    This aged well.
    The eye test doesn't fail, watching them decimate my team was like poetry in motion. They are my favorite going into the NCT as well.

    Leave a comment:


  • WitnessTheAttorney
    replied
    Originally posted by Gronksmash View Post
    I'm gonna put my prediction out there that OSU B is a lock out of Geneva. The highest PD of any team at regionals by them was not a mistake. Having seen them at Regionals, I refuse to believe that their A team is better. On their Plaintiff side at least, I was more impressed with them at Regionals than most teams I have seen in the NCT finals the last few years...
    This aged well.

    Leave a comment:


  • DefenseMid
    replied
    With Geneva, I feel pretty confident in guessing that a B team will make it out. Arizona and OSU did it last year, plus a bunch of other good B teams. I think it just comes down to who shows up, how the bracket plays out, and how judges react to their cases - there are probably at least 10 teams who could make it out of that ORCS with the right weekend.

    Leave a comment:


  • Roger_Wilco
    replied
    Originally posted by Gronksmash View Post
    I'm gonna put my prediction out there that OSU B is a lock out of Geneva. The highest PD of any team at regionals by them was not a mistake. Having seen them at Regionals, I refuse to believe that their A team is better. On their Plaintiff side at least, I was more impressed with them at Regionals than most teams I have seen in the NCT finals the last few years...
    Well if you directly compare their results at Regionals (which is a totally fair and analytically unimpeachable method of comparison), both ended 7-1, but OSU A had a stellar 13.5 CS, whereas OSU B clocked in at a measly 13 CS. On the other hand, OSU B had a whopping PD of 161, but OSU A could only manage a disappointing 154 PD.

    Or maybe nobody is a lock out of any ORCS because it's ORCS. The margin for error is razor-thin; just one bad round, just one unlucky draw could spell the end to any team's hopes for a bid.

    Leave a comment:


  • Popen_Dopen
    replied
    Originally posted by unfounded View Post
    Not sure how GW isn't a bubble team at Richmond. They've had impressive results all season and went 6-2 at regionals, only dropping ballots to Duke and American by 1 point each.
    GW is all but a lock for the NCT..super talented team

    Leave a comment:


  • Gronksmash
    replied
    I'm gonna put my prediction out there that OSU B is a lock out of Geneva. The highest PD of any team at regionals by them was not a mistake. Having seen them at Regionals, I refuse to believe that their A team is better. On their Plaintiff side at least, I was more impressed with them at Regionals than most teams I have seen in the NCT finals the last few years...

    Leave a comment:


  • happygolucky
    replied
    Originally posted by VoirDeerInTheHeadlights
    Wheaton also went first at Wash U Arch Invite
    Good catch, so they did. Though this was the second week of October. I suppose I just wanted to say I don't find it shocking Wheaton isn't "First in." For the record, I have them advancing.

    Leave a comment:


  • happygolucky
    replied
    Originally posted by Quenner View Post

    Similar criticism for the Geneva analysis. Wheaton on the bubble after winning their region with a CS of 19 and strong invitational showings leading up to that, and still thinking the Carthage Miami thing reflects anything about how those programs have done in other rounds? Obviously you can't put everyone on the first in list, but seems like this one is just based on team name recognition.
    This is fair and a great discussion. But if I was MAIMD (which I'm not) I would only try to have my first-in teams be for sure locks, and as great as Wheaton has been, its so hard to say any team is a lock. And looking at Wheaton specifically, sure they did great at regionals, but their notable invitational results are: 2nd at Cornshucker and 1st at Racheter. Thats all I can find, unless there is a tab summary out there I don't have access to. Two great results, certainly, but a "lock" at one of the hardest ORCS? I wouldn't call them that. Hopefully they can prove me and MAIMD wrong.

    Leave a comment:


  • Quenner
    replied
    Originally posted by nunya View Post

    The Memphis discussion on the other hand seems outdated, both in terms of the Rhodes name drops and teams omitted from the bubble. It seems like MockAnalysis attributed his/her predictions for Memphis based almost entirely on TPR data and Georgia's stellar invitational season. But for one, omitting Texas from the bubble is inconsistent with their near undefeated season. In fact, I believe their program outperformed all three Baylor teams last fall? Also, St. Thomas' performance this year and last warrants inclusion. Last I counted, I believe three former Rhodes coaches/competitors now coach St. Thomas. Their continued rise is inevitable. Finally, Georgia B should also be included. Georgia's depth is insane, evidenced by their four teams breaking from regionals. I expect this ORC will be more competitive than MockAnalysis suggests.
    Similar criticism for the Geneva analysis. Wheaton on the bubble after winning their region with a CS of 19 and strong invitational showings leading up to that, and still thinking the Carthage Miami thing reflects anything about how those programs have done in other rounds? Obviously you can't put everyone on the first in list, but seems like this one is just based on team name recognition.

    Leave a comment:


  • Random
    replied
    Originally posted by happygolucky View Post

    How so?
    Apart from the veiled references to Georgia’s past run-ins with material invention issues, the analysis seems cursory.

    In my experience, Rhodes, Alabama, & UTC are some of the most creative and performance heavy programs in the country. Rhodes wins rounds based off their volume alone. The overall analysis implies that this region is stylistically very different from the Northeast or the West Coast when I think that could not be further from the truth. Especially if you are looking at Rhodes as the main team from this region. The only region that stylistically differs from the others in a big way is the Midwest.

    The analysis also diminishes programs like Louisiana Monroe and St. Thomas who have made big statements with their tournament results this spring. I agree with the other posters that ignoring Vanderbilt and Texas is shortsighted. Despite the fanfare for Georgia, I think the analysis undermines the bounce back that the program has had this year. I can easily see them taking 2 bids.

    I appreciate the overall depth of the analysis across all the ORCs (still underestimating Arizona ), but it seems pretty clear to me that MTAIMD has a blind spot for the South.

    Leave a comment:


  • unfounded
    replied
    Not sure how GW isn't a bubble team at Richmond. They've had impressive results all season and went 6-2 at regionals, only dropping ballots to Duke and American by 1 point each.

    Leave a comment:


  • nunya
    replied
    Originally posted by Random View Post
    This analysis seems to be woefully misinformed about the Memphis ORC.
    Retweet - most if not all of the discussion is spot on. The Memphis discussion on the other hand seems outdated, both in terms of the Rhodes name drops and teams omitted from the bubble. It seems like MockAnalysis attributed his/her predictions for Memphis based almost entirely on TPR data and Georgia's stellar invitational season. But for one, omitting Texas from the bubble is inconsistent with their near undefeated season. In fact, I believe their program outperformed all three Baylor teams last fall? Also, St. Thomas' performance this year and last warrants inclusion. Last I counted, I believe three former Rhodes coaches/competitors now coach St. Thomas. Their continued rise is inevitable. Finally, Georgia B should also be included. Georgia's depth is insane, evidenced by their four teams breaking from regionals. I expect this ORC will be more competitive than MockAnalysis suggests.

    Leave a comment:


  • AnonymousMockKid
    replied
    To clarify a couple things from the Memphis ORCS section: Anna Eldridge (not Eldridge-Smith) has been the head coach and program director at Rhodes for like 5 years. Also, Kelsey McClain is a captain of Rhodes A.

    Leave a comment:


  • happygolucky
    replied
    Originally posted by Random View Post
    This analysis seems to be woefully misinformed about the Memphis ORC.
    How so?

    Leave a comment:

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